StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 20 WVU seeks 5th straight win Saturday vs. No. 10 TCU
By:   - 
Published: 11/1/2014  at  5:43:00 AM
  Print This Article    

TCU HORNED FROGS (6-1)
at WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (6-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -5.5, Total: 72.5

No. 20 West Virginia looks to continue its surprise start to the season when it hosts No. 10 TCU on Saturday.

Last season, these two schools played an exciting game, with West Virginia recording a 30-27 overtime victory. The Horned Frogs were able to gain nearly 500 yards of offense, but the Mountaineers were able to force four turnovers to help earn the victory. TCU is a different team this season, in large part because of the improved play of QB Trevone Boykin. The Horned Frogs are coming off a game in which they scored 82 points against Texas Tech. TCU is 7-0 ATS when scoring at least 28 points this season, while West Virginia is only 5-14 ATS the past three seasons when giving up at least 28 points. The Mountaineers were supposed to be down again this season, but the team has been one of the biggest surprises in college football. They have only two losses this season, and they are to Alabama and Oklahoma. Since the loss to the Sooners, WVU is 4-0 SU with 33+ points in each of the four victories. Both teams got good news about star offensive players this week, as both TCU WR Josh Doctson (foot) and WVU RB Rushel Shell (ankle) have been upgraded to probable.

Can TCU put an end to West Virginia's four-game win streak? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past three weeks.

TCU leads the nation in scoring (50.4 PPG), while ranking sixth in FBS passing (360.1 YPG) and 35th in rushing (212.9 YPG). The offense has been tremendous this season, in large part because of the performance from QB Trevone Boykin (2,306 pass yards, 374 rush yards, 24 total TD). He has always had the ability to make plays with his legs, but now he is becoming more consistent throwing the ball. He still does not complete a great percentage of his throws (58.7%), but he has limited the mistakes that have hurt him early in his career, tossing only 3 INT all season. Last week against Texas Tech, he threw for 433 yards and seven touchdowns. RB B.J. Catalon (78 carries, 388 yards, 8 TD) has shown to be a strong rusher out of the backfield, making the read-option very difficult to stop. WRs Josh Doctson (35 catches, 573 yards, 7 TD), Deante Gray (27 catches, 431 yards, 6 TD) and Kolby Listenbee (22 catches, 494 yards, 3 TD) are all capable of taking over the game at the wideout position. While most teams have one cornerback that can slow down an opponent’s top receiver, very few teams have the secondary depth to stop TCU. Boykin has done a nice job of finding the mismatch and making them pay. The Frogs defense ranks 29th in FBS scoring defense (21.6 PPG allowed), and has shown the ability to make the big play. Paul Dawson (79 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks, 3 FR, 2 INT) is all over the field on defense, and is a guy the quarterback has to know where he is at every play. Dawson helps out in the run, but he can also guard the running back out of the backfield. S Chris Hackett (51 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 TFL) is a very important guy in this game, as he is going to be matched up against one of the best receivers in the country in Kevin White.

West Virginia is ninth in the nation in passing this year (346.1 YPG), 23rd in scoring (36.9 PPG) and 51st in rushing (180.9 YPG). Quarterback Clint Trickett (2,763 pass yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) has become a star in the Big 12, and is the biggest reason why the Mountaineers are off to such a terrific start. His favorite target is WR Kevin White (72 catches, 1,047 yards, 8 TD, who is a threat all over the field. He not only makes tough catches over the middle, but has the speed to catch the deep route on the outside. With the presence of WR Mario Alford (45 catches, 600 yards, 6 TD), defenses are not able to double-team White on the outside. While the passing game gets a lot of the talk, the ground game has been solid as well this year. RBs Rushel Shell (114 carries, 503 yards, 6 TD) and Wendell Smallwood (100 carries, 476 yards, 1 TD) have both done a nice job of forcing defenses to keep an extra guy in the box to stop the run. They also are very good when it comes to pass blocking, allowing Trickett more time to find an open receiver. The defense ranks 55th in the nation in scoring defense (25.0 PPG), but it is much improved compared to the past two seasons. LB Nick Kwiatkoski (62 tackles, 9 TFL, 2 PD) is the leading tackler on the team, making his presence felt in the backfield. The best player on the unit is S Karl Joseph (60 tackles, 2 TFL), who has been a star from day one of his freshman year, and is now not having to make as many tackles as he did in the previous two seasons. This has allowed him to roam around a little bit more, using his speed to make quarterbacks hesitant to take a risk.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: