StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 5 Oregon aims for payback Saturday vs. Stanford
By:   - 
Published: 11/1/2014  at  5:24:00 AM
  Print This Article    

STANFORD CARDINAL (5-3)
at OREGON DUCKS (7-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -7.5, Total: 54.4

No. 5 Oregon looks for some revenge on Saturday night when it hosts an unranked Stanford team that has had the upper hand in this series recently.

Last year, the Cardinal picked up a home victory against the Ducks, winning, 26-20. The biggest reason why Stanford was able to get the victory was because it dominated time of possession (42:34) by carrying the football 66 times for 274 yards, keeping Oregon's terrific offense on the sidelines. The Cardinal also won their last trip to Eugene in 2012 keeping the ball for 37:05 in a 17-14 victory. Stanford (4-4 ATS) has alternated wins and losses in each of its past five games, bouncing back from a 26-10 loss at Arizona State on Oct. 18 with a convincing 38-14 victory over Oregon State last week. The defense, which has played tremendous all season long, dominated Beavers star QB Sean Mannion, allowing him to complete only 14-of-30 passes for 122 yards (4.1 YPA). For the Cardinal, who are 6-0 ATS as an underdog under head coach David Shaw, to pick up a third straight win in this series, the defense will once again have to be on top of its game. Since their lone season loss to Arizona, the Ducks (4-4 ATS) offense has been tremendous during a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) with 48.7 PPG and 537 total YPG broken down nicely into 291 passing YPG and 247 rushing YPG. Oregon scored 56 points against California last week, and is 7-0 ATS in the past two seasons after scoring at least 50 points, winning these games by a margin of 52 to 17. Stanford has a couple of defensive injury concerns with DB Ra'Chard Pippens (undisclosed) and DL David Parry (leg) both considered questionable, while Oregon's only recent injury is a WR Keanon Lowe, who is questionable with a bad hamstring.

Can Oregon snap its losing skid to Stanford in convincing fashion? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past three weeks.

Stanford has struggled on offense this season, ranking 91st in the nation in scoring (25.8 PPG), 93rd in rushing (141.3 YPG) and 63rd in passing (241.5 YPG). The Cardinal have been able to defeat the Ducks the past two games because of their ability to rush the ball, averaging 237 rushing yards per game against Oregon in the past two seasons. However, the offense has really struggled to run the ball, putting more of the pressure on QB Kevin Hogan (1,814 pass yards, 13 TD and 6 INT). Hogan is at his best when the Cardinal are running the ball, allowing him to use the play-action fake. RB Remound Wright (69 carries, 326 yards, 2 TD) and Barry Sanders (40 carries, 290 yards, 7.3 YPC) will have to play much better than they have this season to help control the time of possession. If the Cardinal are able to establish the running game, that could open up big plays for speedy WR Ty Montgomery (49 catches, 514 yards, 3 TD). Montgomery is one of the elite receivers in the country, as his speed allows him to get behind the defense. While the offense has not been as good as it has in the past, the defense has continued to be one of the best in the country. The unit currently ranks second in the nation in points allowed (12.5 PPG allowed) and has given up a meager 251 total YPG (3.7 yards per play). Linebackers Blake Martinez (60 tackles, 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) and A.J. Tarpley (53 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks) are one of the best duos in the country, as they roam all over the field. LB Peter Kalambayi (21 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks) does a great job of getting after the quarterback. The Cardinal do a tremendous job of tacking and not allowing the big plays to open up. That will once again be a key, as the Ducks have the playmakers to score from anywhere on the field.

Entering Saturday’s game, the Ducks ranks fifth in FBS scoring (45.5 PPG), 16th in passing (311.8 YPG) and 28th in rushing (223.1 YPG). The offense starts with one guy, and that is QB Marcus Mariota (2,283 pass yards, 235 rush yards, 29 total TD). What separates Mariota is how well he does at limiting mistakes (1 INT all season), while also completing nearly 69 percent of his passes. Joining Mariota in the backfield is freshman RB Royce Freeman (136 carries, 748 yards, 13 TD). At 230 pounds, Freeman is a great combination of size and speed, making him very difficult to bring down. However, it is not a one-man show, as RB Thomas Tyner (66 carries, 279 yards, 1 TD) and WR Byron Marshall (37 carries, 306 yards, 1 TD) both have the ability to break off long gainers. Marshall is also the leading receiver on the team (38 catches, 521 yards, 4 TD), while WR Devon Allen (27 catches, 487 yards, 6 TD) is a speedster who can take it the distance on any given night. These two will be counted upon more, as WR Keanon Lowe (17 catches, 266 yards, 4 TD) may be out due to a hamstring injury. The Ducks defense enters the game ranked 61st in the country in points allowed (25.9 PPG) and has surrendered 462 total YPG. DB Erick Dargan (53 tackles, 7 PD, 4 INT) is a star in the secondary, as he does a nice job of stopping both the run and pass. He will play a big role in this game, as he will be seeing a lot of time covering Montgomery. LB Derrick Malone (50 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 fumble recovery) is key in stopping the run, and will have to do that against a Stanford team that is struggling to rush the football.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: