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Blazers favored big vs. Thunder Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/29/2014  at  4:40:00 AM
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OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (0-0)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (0-0)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Portland -8, Total: 201.5

With superstar Kevin Durant out, the Thunder tip off their 2014-15 season when they travel to take on the Trail Blazers Wednesday night.

Oklahoma City was once again one of the best teams in the NBA last season, finishing second in the Western Conference with a 59-23 SU record (72%) while losing to the eventual NBA Champion Spurs in the conference finals over six games. The Thunder did not do much as far as additions in the offseason and will look towards youngsters like C Steven Adams and SF Andre Roberson who all should be starting at the beginning of the season. Just like Oklahoma City, Portland did not do too much in the offseason, adding two veterans in PG Steve Blake and C Chris Kaman, but the club still has a young core of PG Damian Lillard, PF LaMarcus Aldridge and SF Nicolas Batum to get the job done like last season. The Blazers were a top team all season long as they went 54-28 (66%) but were defeated over five games against San Antonio. As a road team last season, the Thunder were 29-21 SU (24-25 ATS) and will be going up against a Portland club that was a very solid 34-12 SU at home, but failing to do well ATS (20-26). This game will mark the eighth time that these two teams have met over the past two seasons with the Thunder holding a strong 6-2 SU edge (5-2-1 ATS) while shooting better than 48% from the field in their final two victories last season. As far as trends go, Oklahoma City is 48-27 ATS (64%) in road games over the first half of the season since 1996 while being just 9-10 ATS (47%) in an away game where the Total is between 200 and 204.5 over the past two seasons. Injuries will really hurt the Thunder in this one, as SF Kevin Durant (foot), PG Reggie Jackson (foot) and SG Jeremy Lamb (back) are all expected to miss this game while PF LaMarcus Aldrige (groin) is probable for the Blazers.

Can the Thunder keep the game close without star Kevin Durant? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Zach posted a 54% ATS mark (65-56-4) in NBA Best Bets last season, while StatFox Forecaster had a 53.4% ATS (207-181-12) in featured games last season.

Oklahoma City was one of the better offenses last season when it averaged 106.2 PPG (5th in NBA) and hit 47% of its shots (6th in league). The Thunder finished off the season with some solid offensive performances against the Spurs, scoring 105+ points in three of their final four games. Their defense was not quite as prolific, allowing opposing teams to score 99.8 PPG against them (12th in league) and they gave up 114.5 PPG in their final two losses of the conference finals. PG Russell Westbrook (21.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.7 RPG, 1.9 SPG last season) has averaged 21.5 PPG (44% FG), 6.0 RPG, 5.6 APG and 1.3 SPG over 21 career games facing the Blazers and is one of the best all-around players in the league. After Westbrook, the team will be looking for PF Serge Ibaka (15.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.7 BPG last season) to do some more scoring with Durant out, but Ibaka scored a mere 11.8 PPG (40% FG) with 7.5 RPG and 3.3 BPG over his four meetings with Portland last season. With many other scorers likely missing this contest, C Steven Adams (3.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG last season) will be expected to be a big part of the offense as he moves into the role of starter.

Just like the Thunder, Portland scored a ton of points last season (106.7 PPG, 4th in league) while hitting on just 45% of its field goals. The Blazers did even better at home, tallying 107.8 PPG in front of their fans while being among the worst defenses in the NBA when they allowed 102.8 PPG (9th-worst in league). PF LaMarcus Aldridge (23.2 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 1.0 BPG last season) upped his game to elite status last season while ranking in the top-10 in both points and rebounds. When facing the Thunder over four games last season he was amazing, averaging 26.0 PPG (44% FG) and 13.8 RPG. PG Damian Lillard (20.7 PPG, 5.6 APG last season) is one of the most exciting young stars in the game and he has used his explosiveness to drop 15.5 PPG (35% FG) with 7.3 APG against OKC in eight career meetings. SF Nicolas Batum (13.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 5.1 APG last season) is one of the more complete players in the game and has put up 11.4 PPG (42% FG) with 4.0 RPG in his career against the Thunder (21 games, 18 starts).


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