SOUTHWEST DIVISION

GUARDS
MONTA ELLIS will be the Mavs' lead guard again, taking on even more ball-handling responsibilities with their black hole at point guard. In his first season in Dallas, he proved to be the perfect fit running pick-and-rolls in head coach Rick Carlisle’s system . . . The Mavericks are in trouble if they have to rely on RAYMOND FELTON, a fringe rotation-caliber player even in his brief “prime,” but he might end up the starter by default . . . JAMEER NELSON’s poor defense makes him difficult to pair with Ellis, but offensively he’s the best option . . . DEVIN HARRIS is a superior defender and a dangerous offensive player, but the questions are durability and how well he fits alongside Ellis . . . GAL MEKEL struggled offensively, but his defense is going to earn him minutes at both guard spots. He’s a borderline rotation guy.

FORWARDS
DIRK NOWITZKI came back on a discounted deal, but at age 36 he still has plenty left in the tank. He’s a legit All-Star-caliber player . . . Dallas pried CHANDLER PARSONS from Houston, giving the team someone to run the floor with Ellis and shoot some corner threes in the half-court set. He figures to have a slightly smaller role than he did with the Rockets though . . . Last season in Utah, RICHARD JEFFERSON reestablished himself as a rotation player by adding a consistent three-point shot . . . AL-FAROUQ AMINU gives the Mavs an energy guy who can play both forward spots . . . JAE CROWDER will have to fight to keep his spot in the rotation. He has yet to put it together offensively and he needs to add a three-point shot . . . GREG SMITH won’t make a significant contribution unless his knee proves healthy.

CENTERS
Durability is an underlying issue, but the Mavs were thrilled to bring TYSON CHANDLER back into the fold. He’ll be much happier in Carlisle’s defensive system than he was in Mike Woodson’s switch-everything approach . . . BRANDAN WRIGHT will play fewer minutes behind Chandler as an extra rim protector and rebounder.

StatFox Take: The Mavericks provided the best competition for the Spurs out of any team in last year’s playoffs. They pushed the eventual champions to seven games but were unable to pull off the upset. Now they have brought in Tyson Chandler, Chandler Parsons and additional bench pieces to arm them for their push. They are a darkhorse to win this division, but don’t count on them to win the West or an NBA title.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

2013-14 SU record: 56-32 SU (63.6%), 6th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 43-42-3 ATS (50.6%), 12th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southwest Division: 5-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 14-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 30-to-1

GUARDS
The postseason was a different story for JAMES HARDEN, but he was a dominant all-around performer during the past two regular seasons. He’ll do the bulk of the ball-handling for the up-tempo Rockets . . . After looking for an upgrade during the offseason, it’s back to PATRICK BEVERLEY at the point. He’s the No. 4 or 5 option on offense, but his defense will keep him on the floor . . . There’s little backcourt depth, so rookie NICK JOHNSON has a shot at the rotation. He’s NBA-ready as a defender, but his offensive game is shaky . . . ISH SMITH will push for that back-up point guard job . . . ISAIAH CANAAN will have to shoot the lights out early to get a look in the rotation . . . FRANCISCO GARCIA is still here as a 3-and-D option.

FORWARDS
TREVOR ARIZA slides into Chandler Parsons’ old role, providing defense and three-point shooting. He has a chance for a career-best output offensively . . . The Rockets know they need an upgrade over TERRENCE JONES, but they struck out during the offseason. He’s a hustle guy, but he’s too much of a defensive liability at the 4-spot . . . After disappearing last season, DONATAS MOTIEJUNAS has a chance to play himself into a thin frontcourt rotation. He’s a potential 7-foot floor spacer . . . JEFF ADRIEN will be a "little things" guy in the second unit . . . They wanted to leave CLINT CAPELA overseas, but he’ll be in Houston. He might be the future at the 4-spot, but he’s years away . . . KOSTAS PAPANIKOLAOU has potential as a versatile bench option.

CENTERS
DWIGHT HOWARD looked healthy again and was, at times, dominant. His game still has obvious flaws, namely free-throw shooting and an inability to step away from the basket, but there’s no reason he can’t flirt with 20-10 nightly while being among the league leaders in blocks . . . Ex-Rocket JOEY DORSEY returns after a strong stint in Spain. He’ll bring some muscle (and six fouls) behind Howard.

StatFox Take: The Rockets are the only team that one could make a case for winning this division without considering it a “bold” claim. San Antonio may opt to rest its players during the regular season, giving Houston the opportunity to steal the Southwest. The team will not, however, contend to win the Western Conference or an NBA championship, as it is just not deep enough, and James Harden has a knack for disappearing in big games.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

2013-14 SU record: 53-36 SU (59.6%), 9th in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 39-46-4 ATS (45.9%), 25th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southwest Division: 8-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 25-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 60-to-1

GUARDS
So much for head coach David Joerger picking up the tempo. MIKE CONLEY has become a much better half-court player, a requirement on this team . . . COURTNEY LEE will likely be the offensive side of their 2-guard platoon, as he was late last season . . . He lost some minutes late last season, but there’s still a part-time role for TONY ALLEN . . . VINCE CARTER will take over Mike Miller’s old role, a floor spacer at both wing spots . . . The Grizzlies blocked NICK CALATHES’ move back to Europe to keep him around for point guard depth. He is suspended for the first 13 games of the season . . . JORDAN ADAMS comes from UCLA with a strong statistical profile. He might not break into the rotation as a rookie, though . . . BENO UDRIH bought himself another season with strong postseason play.

FORWARDS
ZACH RANDOLPH remains the go-to scorer in Memphis. And he’s playing for what might be his last big NBA payday . . . TAYSHAUN PRINCE has faded fast, and his expiring contract might be his greatest asset right now . . . QUINCY PONDEXTER returns after missing most of last season with a stress fracture in his foot. He’ll have to battle his way back into the rotation after the acquisition of Vince Carter . . . Second-rounder JARNELL STOKES has a football player’s build and is quick around the basket, but he could be looking at a season spent mostly in the D-League . . . JON LEUER is still doing Jon Leuer things, shooting well from long range and grabbing occasional rebounds.

CENTERS
MARC GASOL will earn a max contract if he keeps playing at this level. Along with very good defense, he’s become a valuable facilitator for this team on the offensive end of the court . . . KOSTA KOUFOS is one of the league’s better back-up centers. He fits well in the Grizzlies’ slow-tempo system.

StatFox Take: The Grizzlies suffered a front office explosion this offseason, but were able to keep their on-court core intact while also adding Vince Carter. This team is extremely difficult to beat, but it lacks the explosiveness on offense to really get to the next level. Memphis will be a playoff team this season, and may win a round or two, but is not a good bet to do much more than that.

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

2013-14 SU record: 34-48 SU (41.5%), 21st in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 36-41-5 ATS (46.8%), 23rd in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southwest Division: 20-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 30-to-1
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 70-to-1

GUARDS
He’s set to return from shin surgery, and the Pelicans need JRUE HOLIDAY to rescue this backcourt. He’ll play as many minutes as he can handle . . . ERIC GORDON seems to be playing at half-speed. While his defense is atrocious, he’s still an efficient scorer . . . Sixth man TYREKE EVANS will play solid minutes. He has the aggressiveness of an alpha, but he never developed a complete offensive game . . . The Pels seem just about done with AUSTIN RIVERS. He’s still overmatched . . . RUSS SMITH could have a future as a scoring sixth man. He’ll need injuries in front of him to crack this rotation . . . JIMMER FREDETTE can shoot, but can’t stay on the court as arguably the league’s biggest defensive liability.

FORWARDS
The lone bright spot on this team, ANTHONY DAVIS is a bona fide star. He has improved defensively in space and as a rim protector, and his offensive game is coming along nicely . . . RYAN ANDERSON returns after missing most of last season with a back injury, which could potentially linger. If healthy, he’ll play big minutes as a much-needed floor spacer . . . JOHN SALMONS will look to earn a rotation spot after being scooped up off waivers . . . After a few decent moments late last season, LUKE BABBITT will try to reinvent himself as a stretch-4. Unfortunately, he still can’t guard anyone . . . DARIUS MILLER is still hanging around as a practice player.

CENTERS
OMER ASIK provides a bodyguard for Anthony Davis. He’ll also help clean up the many mistakes of this horrendous perimeter defense . . . ALEXIS AJINCA did enough late last season to warrant a look as the Pelicans No. 2 center . . . JEFF WITHEY can protect the rim, and might be able to carve out a role in his second season in head coach Monty Williams’ system.

StatFox Take: Many people expected the Pelicans to make a push for the playoffs during the 2013-14 campaign, but injuries ultimately derailed their season. Now Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson are both healthy, and New Orleans also brought in Omer Asik to play alongside Anthony Davis. This is a team that could very well be playing in the playoffs this season, but they’re not a very good pick to do anything outside of that.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

2013-14 SU record: 78-27 SU (74.3%), 1st in NBA
2013-14 ATS record: 58-47 ATS (55.2%), 5th in NBA
Odds to Win 2014-15 Southwest Division: 63-to-100
Odds to Win 2014-15 Western Conference: 19-to-10
Odds to Win 2014-15 NBA Championship: 7-to-2

GUARDS
TONY PARKER may not be ageless, as he’ll sit a handful of games during the regular season. But when the 32-year-old is on the court, he still gets into the lane whenever he wants . . . He can’t do anything off the dribble, but DANNY GREEN is one of the league’s elite spot-up shooters . . . MANU GINOBILI will need some regular-season maintenance as far as playing time goes, especially coming off a stress fracture in his leg. He’s essential for the postseason . . . MARCO BELINELLI will have a significant role off the bench due to his ability to defend, shoot and do some ball-handling . . . It might be a lost regular season for NBA Finals star PATTY MILLS as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. He hopes to make his season debut in mid-January . . . CORY JOSEPH will pick up a few more minutes while Mills is out.

FORWARDS
There’s plenty of buzz surrounding KAWHI LEONARD after his Finals MVP performance, though it seems unlikely they’ll make him the centerpiece of this offense as long as their vets are still going strong . . . Thirty-eight-year-old TIM DUNCAN is still one of the better power forwards in the league. Just like Parker and Ginobili, he’ll take the occasional DNP-CD. His rebounding and shot-blocking rates continue to surge. The only real disappointment last season was that his FT shooting slid back towards his sub-70% career mark . . . JEFF AYRES is one of the new anonymous big men at the end of the San Antonio bench. He’ll see a handful of starts when Gregg Popovich rests his star players . . . KYLE ANDERSON is too much of a defensive liability to see major minutes as a rookie, but his versatile skill set suggests he could be Boris Diaw’s heir apparent . . . MATT BONNER will hoist some threes during the regular season.

CENTERS
Popovich rotates his centers depending on the situation. TIAGO SPLITTER, the more traditional 5, will likely take the bulk of the minutes again . . . BORIS DIAW will play when the offense gets stagnant, especially when opponents go small.

StatFox Take: The Spurs showed the world how dominant they could be with their routing of the Heat in last season's NBA Finals. This team hasn’t lost any key players and the chemistry remains top-notch. The championship hangover can devastate some teams, but Gregg Popovich knows how to motivate his guys. They’re a great bet to win the division, conference and even championship once again.

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