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Saints desperate for win Sunday vs. Packers
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/26/2014  at  5:59:00 AM
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GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-2)
at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New Orleans -1.5, Total: 55.5

The Saints look to get back on track Sunday night when they host the surging Packers.

Green Bay ripped off its fourth straight win (SU and ATS) when it cruised to a 38-17 victory over the Panthers at home last week. Meanwhile, New Orleans allowed two touchdowns in the final 3:38 of the fourth quarter last Sunday to lose 24-23 to the Lions. These teams last met on Sept. 30, 2012, when the Packers beat the Saints 28-27 as 7.5-point favorites at Lambeau Field. These teams have split wins SU and ATS when playing in New Orleans since 1992, and overall, the Packers are 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) in this series during that span. Seven of those eight meetings have gone Over the total. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in October games over the past two seasons, but New Orleans is 6-1 ATS after a loss by six points or less and 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons. The Packers could be short-handed in the secondary for this game with CB Sam Shields (knee) and S Morgan Burnett (calf) both listed as questionable. The Saints are more concerned about the health of some offensive stars. TE Jimmy Graham (shoulder) has been limited in practice and remains questionable for Sunday night, while RB Pierre Thomas (ribs) is out 2-to-3 weeks and RB Khiry Robinson is dealing with a forearm injury.

Can the Saints put an end to the Packers' four-game win streak? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past five weeks, combining for a 58% ATS mark (45-33). StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 61% ATS (17-11) on the season. StatFox Dave is 64% ATS (14-8) in Best Bets during these five weeks to improve to 56% ATS (18-14) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 59% ATS (10-7) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 71% record (15-6) for the season.

Green Bay has been on a roll recently, winning four straight games and five of its past six contests. QB Aaron Rodgers (1,674 pass yards, 18 TD, 1 INT) is looking like a serious MVP candidate at this point in the season. He’ll now get to face a secondary that has really struggled this year. New Orleans is allowing 270.5 yards per game through the air (28th in NFL) and things won’t suddenly get easier for them with Rodgers in town. He will frequently be looking for top WRs Jordy Nelson (47 rec, 712 yards, 6 TD) and Randall Cobb (35 rec, 452 yards, 8 TD) in this game. Both of these receivers have caught at least one touchdown in each of the past four games. One good sign for the Packers is that RB Eddie Lacy (369 rush yards, 4 TD) is starting to turn his season around. After failing to find the end zone in the first three games of the year, Lacy has now scored four touchdowns over the past four games. They’ll need him to be effective going forward in order to open the field more for Rodgers. This Green Bay defense is allowing only 214.9 passing yards per game (6th in NFL) but has surrendered a miserable 147.9 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL). As long as the Pack is able to slow down Drew Brees, they should have a chance.

Saints QB Drew Brees (1,916 yards, 11 TD, 7 INT) seemingly had his team in a can’t-lose situation last Sunday, but a late interception allowed the Lions to steal a win. Brees now faces the Packers in a must-win matchup on Sunday, but he’s been very good against Green Bay in his career individually. In five games against the Packers, Brees has thrown for 380.8 passing YPG, 14 TD and just 2 INT. He’ll look to target TE Jimmy Graham (34 rec, 376 yards, 3 TD) often, but the All-Pro tight end was dealing with a lot of shoulder pain in last week’s loss to the Lions. If Graham isn’t feeling healthy enough to contribute, WR Marques Colston (21 rec, 359 yards, 1 TD) will be the beneficiary. Last game, Colston hauled in six of his 11 targets for a total of 111 yards. He has now been targeted 27 times over the past three weeks. RB Travaris Cadet (16 rec, 134 yards, 1 TD) will step in as Pierre Thomas’ (shoulder) replacement as the Saints’ pass-catching running back. Cadet had six catches for 51 yards against the Lions and should be in for an even bigger workload on Sunday. This game will, however, come down to the play of New Orleans’ defense. They’ve allowed 31.0 PPG over the past three weeks and will need to find a way to keep Aaron Rodgers from throwing all over them.


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