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No. 10 TCU favored big vs. Texas Tech Saturday
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Published: 10/25/2014  at  5:35:00 AM
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TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (3-4)
at TCU HORNED FROGS (5-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -23, Total: 71.5

No. 10 TCU looks to remain in the playoff race as it takes on in-state rival Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon.

The Red Raiders are coming off their first conference victory of the season, as they defeated Kansas, 34-21. However, Saturday will provide a much more difficult test. TCU is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season and bounced back from its lone SU loss on Oct. 11 at Baylor with a 42-9 pounding of Oklahoma State last week. Last season, Texas Tech was able to defeat TCU, 20-10, en route to a 7-0 start to its season. The Red Raiders were able to hold TCU to a mere 4-of-16 on third downs, and both teams struggled with penalties as Texas Tech committed 10 for 89 yards, while the Horned Frogs were whistled for 13 penalties totaling 115 yards. The Red Raiders got off to a great start last season, but struggled down the stretch. That has been a trend, as the team is 3-11 ATS in the past three seasons in the second half of the year. While the Red Raiders have struggled down the stretch, TCU has played great at the end of seasons, going 25-14 ATS at home in the second half of the year under coach Gary Patterson. TCU has no new injuries, but Texas Tech has a slew of players listed as questionable for Saturday including WR Jakeem Grant (leg), WR Bradley Marquez (ribs) and DB Keenon Ward (concussion).

Will TCU be able to win this Big 12 contest by more than three touchdowns? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with an 83% ATS mark (5-1) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Under head coach Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech has continued to be one of the best teams at throwing the ball. Heading into this game, the Red Raiders rank 10th in the country in passing (330.4 YPG), while ranking 61st in scoring (30.9 PPG) and 69th in rushing (158.7 YPG). Quarterback Davis Webb (2,239 pass yards, 62% completions, 22 TD) has potential to be a star, but he has to limit his mistakes (12 INT). He has a very strong arm, but sometimes forces throws that just aren’t there. At the running back position, DeAndre Washington (112 carries, 622 yards, 1 TD) is a talented player who is capable of carrying the ball nearly 30 times a game, while RB Justin Stockton (31 carries, 297 yards, 4 TD) is the big-play threat with a 75-yard touchdown on his resume. Jakeem Grant (50 catches, 629 yards, 5 TD) and Bradley Marquez (41 catches, 517 yards, 7 TD) are one of the best receiving duos in the Big 12. With Grant and Marquez both questionable with injuries, Webb will look more for WR Reginald Davis, who has five touchdowns on the year. Davis could play a bigger role in this game, as Texas Tech can score points, but has really struggled on defense. The unit ranks 116th in the country (36.9 PPG), and has been dominated in both the rushing and passing games. LB Pete Robertson (54 tackles, 7 TFL, 7 sacks) has been great for the Red Raiders, and has the ability to make plays all over the field. DB Keenon Ward (40 tackles, 4 PD, 1 FF) is a talented player as well, but he may miss this game because of a concussion. Texas Tech has struggled against ranked teams (0-2, 45.0 PPG allowed), and the Horned Frogs offense is outstanding.

TCU ranks fifth in FBS scoring (45.2 PPG), ninth in passing (340.2 YPG) and 42nd in rushing (197.5 YPG). The biggest reason for the offensive explosion is the development of QB Trevone Boykin (1,873 pass yards, 346 rush yards, 17 total TD). Boykin struggled last season (6.8 YPA), as defenses loaded up the box and dared him to throw the ball deep. But he has vastly improved this year (7.6 YPA), and has turned the TCU offense into one of the country’s best. Junior RB B.J. Catalon (69 carries, 370 yards, 8 TD) is a solid runner that has allowed Boykin to not have to run as much. This duo can be especially tough to stop in the read option. Catalon is a bruising running back with nice speed, while Boykin is a blur in the open field. WR Josh Doctson (31 catches, 497 yards, 5 TD) has emerged as Boykin’s favorite target, but he is not the only guy that can make plays. WR Kolby Listenbee (18 catches, 418 yards, 3 TD) forces defenses to play deeper, as he averages 23.2 YPC. The receiving group is deep, as eight guys have at least seven catches. Aside from the outing in Waco, the defense has been tough all season. The unit ranks 26th in the country (20.7 PPG), but nearly half of those points came in one game. Head coach Gary Patterson has long had great defenses in Fort Worth, and this unit once again is loaded with talent. LB Paul Dawson (68 tackles, 9 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 INT) always seems to be around the ball, and even scored a touchdown against Oklahoma. If DE James McFarland (19 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks) can get pressure on the quarterback, that will be huge in this game, as a lot of Davis Webb’s interceptions come when he is on the run.


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