While Cincinnati came away with a 37-37 tie in its Week 6 matchup with the Panthers, Indianapolis jumped out to a big lead and held on for a 33-28 win as a 2.5-point favorite in Houston on Thursday. The Colts are now 5-1 ATS on the season. The Bengals won the most recent meeting last December by a 42-28 score as 7.5-point favorites. QB Andrew Luck threw four touchdowns in that game, but the Indianapolis defense was unable to stop Cincinnati. But when playing at home, the Colts are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS versus the Bengals since 1992, and are also 6-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium in Weeks 5 through 9 over the past three years. Indy is also 12-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 in that time. The Bengals are, however, 11-1 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards in two straight games since 1992. WR A.J. Green (toe) is doubtful for Cincinnati. DE Arthur Jones (ankle) is likely to return to practice for the Colts, but he’s questionable for the game on Sunday.
Can the Bengals put an end to the Colts' win streak? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past four weeks, combining for a 39-24 ATS mark (62%). StatFox Dave is 72% ATS (13-5) in Best Bets during this timeframe to improve to 61% ATS (17-11) on the season, while StatFox Scott is 69% ATS (11-5) in Best Bets during these four weeks, and 58% ATS (14-10) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (69% ATS) (9-4) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3 to increase his season Best Bets mark to 57% ATS (12-9), and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar (78%) record (14-4) for the season.
The Bengals have played extremely well to this point in the season, and a lot of that is thanks to the play of RB Giovani Bernard (384 rush yards, 4 TD). Bernard rushed for a career-high 137 yards in a tie against the Panthers last game. He found the end zone on an 89-yard score and also caught four passes for 20 yards. With WR A.J. Green (17 rec, 314 yards, 2 TD) likely to be out or severely banged up against the Colts, Bernard will have a heavy workload. WR Mohamed Sanu (27 rec, 354 yards, 3 TD) will again take over for Green as the No. 1 receiver for the Bengals in this game if he can’t go. He was outstanding against the Panthers and caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. This Colts defense is, however, very opportunistic. QB Andy Dalton (1,249 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) will really need to take care of the ball in this game. Dalton threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns in the tie against the Panthers, but he also tossed two costly interceptions. With Green out, Dalton needs to manage the game better. This defense started the year off well, but it has surrendered 40.0 PPG in its past two contests. The Bengals are allowing 141.4 rushing YPG (29th in NFL) and 257.4 passing YPG (22nd in NFL). These numbers are alarming with a red-hot offense next on the schedule.
The Colts are coming off their fourth straight victory and QB Andrew Luck (1,987 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) has now passed for more than 300 yards in three straight games and five of six total games this year. Luck is moving his offense at a very high level and should have no problem throwing on a defense that has been lit up the past two weeks. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (284 rush yards, 5 rec TD) and Trent Richardson (281 rush yards, 2 TD) will be huge factors in determining the outcome of this game. The Colts rushed for just 93 yards in their win over the Texans, but that total won’t fly in most games. They should have less trouble rushing against a poor Bengals’ run defense. WR T.Y. Hilton (40 rec, 604 yards, 1 TD) has been on a tear for the Colts recently. Hilton caught nine passes for 223 yards and a touchdown in Houston on Thursday. That marked his second straight game with nine receptions, and he should be in for a big Sunday afternoon against this Bengals defense. The Colts are allowing just 107.5 rushing YPG (11th in NFL), and they’ll need to continue to be successful against the versatile Giovani Bernard. This defense is allowing 233.0 passing YPG (14th in NFL), which means they could have some trouble with Andy Dalton if he is able to limit his mistakes.
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