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Boise State favored big over Fresno State Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/17/2014  at  5:34:00 AM
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FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (3-4)
at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (4-2)

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boise State -17, Total: 63.5

Fresno State looks to end its road woes on Friday night when it travels to the blue turf of Boise State.

Fresno State had opened up the season with a three consecutive losses (both SU and ATS), but has turned things around lately with victories in three of its past four games. The Bulldogs were the favorite in each of those four contests and claimed their wins by an average of 20.7 PPG before suffering a 30-27 loss in their most recent game against UNLV. They were 9.5-point favorites on the road against the Rebels as they lost in overtime after coming behind from a 17-0 start. Fresno put up a solid 487 yards of total offense but turned the ball over three times. Boise State is 4-2 (both SU and ATS) this season, and is coming off an impressive victory at Nevada in its last game as a 3.5-point favorite. The Broncos captured a 51-46 win in the contest as they gained 346 yards of total offense in a sloppy matchup where the two programs combined to turn the ball over seven times. The series between these two teams has been dominated by Boise State, which is 11-3 SU (12-1 ATS) since 1992 while being a perfect 6-0 (both SU and ATS) when playing at home in that timeframe. Fresno State earned its first win in this series since 2005 last year when it was a 41-40 victor as a 3.5-point favorite at home. The teams combined for 59 first downs and 821 passing yards in the barnburner, while the big difference was the two turnovers by the Broncos. Trends show that the Bulldogs are 11-3 ATS (79%) after gaining 6.25 yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons, while Boise State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 17+ points in the first half of two straight games since 1992. As far as injuries go, the Bulldogs have no significant omissions for this contest, while the Broncos will miss top WR Matt Miller (ankle) for the rest of the season and could be without LB Blake Renaud (undisclosed), DB Bryan Douglas (arm) and WR Troy Ware (undisclosed) who are all questionable.

Can Boise State continue its dominance in the series with a lopsided win? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Fresno State brings a balanced offense to the table, as the team is gaining 249.9 YPG of passing and 189.6 YPG of rushing while scoring a mere 28.7 PPG on the year. QB Brian Burrell (1,341 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) has tossed at least one pick in each of the past four games, but has also thrown from 310 or more yards twice in the past three contests. Last week, he was 25-for-44 (57%) with 310 yards while throwing 3 TD and 2 INT in the loss. HB Marteze Waller (661 rush yards, 5 TD) has been impressive over the past four games, averaging 121 YPG on the ground while scoring a touchdown in three of the past four contests. He also adds plenty to the passing attack with 18 catches for 98 yards on the year. WR Josh Harper (637 rec yards, 3 TD) is the main pass-catcher for this team with 47 grabs (13.6 avg) while putting up his biggest performance to date against UNLV with 12 catches for 187 yards and a touchdown. Their defense has been terrible though, allowing 35.6 PPG and 469.9 YPG, and they hope LB Kyrie Wilson (56 tackles, 1 INT, 1 TD) and DL Donavon Lewis (35 tackles, 3.5 sacks) can help turn things around.

Boise State is not the prolific offense that it once was, but the team still puts up great passing numbers (301.5 YPG, 25th in FBS) and has rushed for 182.3 YPG while posting 31.2 PPG. QB Grant Hedrick (1,641 pass yards, 7 TD, 10 INT) has twice thrown four interceptions this season, but is coming off his biggest performance against Nevada when he was 26-for-31 (84%) with 346 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. He has also had at least 10 rushing attempts in four of his six games, leading to 204 yards on the ground (2.9 YPC) with two touchdowns. Joining him in the backfield is HB Jay Ajayi (709 rush yards, 8 TD) who has at least 17 carries in each game (5.0 YPC) and is very hit-or-miss, as he has three games with an average of 173.7 YPG and 2.7 touchdowns per game while going for 62.7 YPG with zero scores in the other three. He also adds with his ability as a receiver with 280 yards (9.0 avg) and two touchdowns through the air. With top WR Matt Miller (461 yards, 3 TD) out for the season, a greater reliance will be put on WR Shane Williams-Rhodes (302 rec yards, 2 TD), who leads the team with 41 catches (7.4 avg). On the defensive side of things, Boise has allowed 27.2 PPG while teams are not able to run against the squad, gaining a mere 109.5 YPG on the ground (17th in FBS). The Broncos will look to the leadership of LB Tanner Vallejo (38 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and DB Darian Thompson (24 tackles, 4 INTs) to shut down the Bulldogs offense.


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