Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New England -9.5, Total: 45.5

The Jets look to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they head to Foxboro on Thursday night to face the Patriots.

New York is coming off of a 31-17 home loss against the Broncos, but New England has won two in a row, including a 37-22 road defeat of the Bills last week. The last time these two teams played was October 20, 2013, when the Jets won 30-27 as three-point home underdogs. Patriots QB Tom Brady did not throw for a touchdown in that game, but did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by Antonio Allen. Prior to that game, New England had won five straight games SU versus New York. Brady is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in his career when facing the Jets under Rex Ryan. In the previous two seasons, New England is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS, when hosting New York. Bill Belichick is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of the Patriots, but the Jets are 16-6 ATS since 1992 after playing three straight games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse. CB Dee Milliner (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury last week season for New York, while New England saw two starters leave with season-ending knee injuries, RB Stevan Ridley and LB Jerod Mayo.

Can the Patriots beat this division rival by double-digits? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past four weeks, combining for a 39-24 ATS mark (62%). StatFox Dave is 72% ATS (13-5) in Best Bets during this timeframe to improve to 61% ATS (17-11) on the season, while StatFox Scott is 69% ATS (11-5) in Best Bets during these four weeks, and 58% ATS (14-10) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (69% ATS) (9-4) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3 to increase his season Best Bets mark to 57% ATS (12-9), and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar (78%) record (14-4) for the season.

The Jets (0-5-1 ATS) have now lost five straight games after their opening week victory over the Raiders. QB Geno Smith (1,139 pass yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) was solid in a lost to Denver last week, throwing for 190 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He’ll now face the Patriots in New England, where he threw for 214 yards with no touchdowns and a miserable three interceptions a season ago. The Jets would be wise to feed RB Chris Ivory (325 rush yards, 2 TD) in this game. The last time these teams met, Ivory rushed for 104 yards. He rushed 12 times for 52 yards in the game at New England last year as well. Ivory’s powerful style of running has been an issue for the Pats, and it’s also helped severely wear down the defensive line by the end of the game. TE Jace Amaro (24 rec, 212 yards, 1 TD) figures to be a much bigger part of the passing game after a breakout performance against the Broncos. He caught 10 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, and this should be more of a sign of things to come rather than a fluke, with Amaro being one of the only legitimate weapons in this offense. New York’s defense has now allowed 24+ points in five consecutive games. They’re allowing only 92.2 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL), but can’t stop teams when it matters most.

Everybody was ready to write off the Patriots just two weeks ago after they were crushed in Kansas City, but now they’ve won back-to-back games in impressive fashion. New England’s defense is allowing just 111.0 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL) and 208.5 passing yards per game (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 19.5 PPG over the past two weeks and could really cause problems for the erratic Geno Smith. Offensively, this team has scored 40.0 PPG over the past two weeks. QB Tom Brady (1,444 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) has been on fire, throwing for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in that time. Brady is also facing a Jets team that he has dominated in the past. Including playoffs, Brady is 19-6 SU in his career versus New York with 36 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He could be even more dominant against this horrible Jets secondary. With Brady turning his season around, TE Rob Gronkowski (26 rec, 341 yards, 4 TD) has also come to life. The tight end caught seven passes for 94 yards in the win over Buffalo. He’s a monster working the middle of the field and could pose some real serious problems for the Jets. RB Shane Vereen (216 rush yards, 1 TD) will likely assume the bulk of the responsibilities in this running game with RB Stevan Ridley (340 rush yards, 2 TD) out for the season.