Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -3, Total: 45

The Patriots hit the road on Sunday when they travel to face the Bills with first place in the AFC East on the line.

New England responded to its Week 4 blowout loss in K.C. with a 43-17 crushing of undefeated Cincinnati last Sunday. Buffalo stopped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Lions 17-14 behind QB Kyle Orton’s 308 passing yards in his season debut as the Bills starter. The Patriots are plenty familiar with QB Tom Brady, who is 22-2 SU (14-9-1 ATS) with 54 TD and 19 INT in his career versus Buffalo. New England has won five straight meetings (3-2 ATS) between these division foes, and has enjoyed its visits to upstate New York, winning nine of the past 10 trips (7-2-1 ATS) to Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Bills, however, are 13-4 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past three seasons. The Patriots are also just 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the past two years. Two key New England defenders -- LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) and S Devin McCourty (ribs) -- are questionable for this matchup, but CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring) has been upgraded to probable. For Buffalo, LB Nigel Bradham (knee) and CB Ron Brooks (neck) are both questionable, but RB Fred Jackson (ankle) and DT Kyle Williams (knee) have both been upgraded to probable.

Can the Bills get a rare win over the Patriots on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

After forcing only one turnover in the previous two games, the Patriots recorded three takeaways in the blowout win over the Bengals. CB Darrelle Revis was able to completely lock down top WR A.J. Green until Revis left the game with a hamstring injury, but his probable tag shows that Revis will play on Sunday, and will see plenty of time covering Sammy Watkins. This is one of the top passing defenses in the NFL, allowing just 196.6 yards per game through the air (3rd in NFL), and hope to make life on Kyle Orton extremely difficult. New England also looked like the Patriots of old on offense, with QB Tom Brady (1,083 pass yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) often lining up TE Tim Wright (9 rec, 120 yards, 1 TD) in two-tight-end packages with TE Rob Gronkowski (19 rec, 247 yards, 4 TD). Wright delivered in the game with five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown, while Gronkowski was even better with six catches for 100 yards and a score. The Patriots also rushed for 220 yards on 4.8 YPC against a Bengals run defense that had allowed only 112.3 rushing YPG in their first three contests. Brady has been dominant against the Bills in his career, and the momentum from last game should carry over. They’ll need to be equally as creative with their offensive weapons as they were a week ago.

The Bills surprised a lot of people with a road victory over the Lions last week, as QB Kyle Orton was excellent down the stretch, finishing with 308 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Orton led a clutch 9-play, 74-yard drive to start the fourth quarter. It ended with a 2-yard touchdown pass and a two-point conversion to tie the game at 14. Orton is much better in the pocket than EJ Manuel is, and worked well with top WR Sammy Watkins (24 rec, 284 yards, 2 TD) who caught seven passes for 87 yards in the win. RB Fred Jackson (201 rush yards, 0 TD), who sprained his ankle in this game, rushed 10 times for 49 yards and caught seven passes for 58 yards. Jackson and Orton had good timing with one another, and if Jackson can play on Sunday, the Bills will give him plenty of touches against a Patriots defense that is much worse against the rush than it is the pass this season. Defensively, the Bills will make the Patriots beat them through the air. They’re allowing just 71.0 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and will likely dominate what is a pretty bad offensive line for New England.