StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 13 Georgia travels without Gurley to No. 23 Missouri
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/11/2014  at  5:34:00 AM
  Print This Article    

GEORGIA BULLDOGS (4-1)
at MISSOURI TIGERS (4-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -3, Total: 59.5

No. 13 Georgia heads out to No. 23 Missouri on Saturday, as each team looks to improve to a 5-1 record. But the Bulldogs will have to do so without their top player, as RB Todd Gurley is suspended indefinitely from the team for an alleged violation of NCAA rules.

The Bulldogs have had a solid start to the 2014 campaign and would be undefeated if not for a 38-35 loss at South Carolina as 6.5-point favorites in the second game of the season. The past three contests have been against some lesser opponents, as they were at least 18-point favorite in each game, going 1-2 ATS. Last week, they took on Vanderbilt as 33-point favorites and dominated with a 44-17 victory while gaining 445 yards of offense, including 243 yards (6.9 YPC) on the ground. Missouri has had an equally impressive start to the year, but had a tough time against Indiana a few weeks ago with a 31-27 loss as 14-point favorites at home. The Tigers followed that up with a big upset against South Carolina in their last game before the bye, winning 21-20 as 6.5-point underdogs as they scored two touchdowns in the final seven minutes. The away team has been the victor in the past couple of meetings between these two programs, as Georgia dominated with a 41-20 win as a 1-point favorite in 2012, while the Tigers took a 41-26 victory as 7-point underdogs on the road last season. In last year’s installment of the matchup, the teams combined for 49 first downs, but the four turnovers by the Bulldogs proved to be their downfall. Bettors should realize that Georgia is 31-16 ATS (66%) after failing to cover the spread in three of their previous four games since 1992, while Missouri is 11-2 ATS (85%) after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. In injury news, TE Jay Rome (leg) is questionable, while HB Keith Marshall (ankle) is expected to miss this game for the Bulldogs, while Tigers WRs Darius White (groin) and Jimmie Hunt (knee) are considered probable for Saturday.

Who will win this matchup of ranked teams? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. Both StatFox Brian (3-1 ATS) and StatFox Dave (4-2 ATS) are coming off strong Week 6 showings.

It is well known that the Bulldogs are one of the nation’s best rushing attacks, as they are scoring an impressive 45.0 PPG (6th in nation) thanks to 288.8 YPG on the ground (12th in FBS), but are doing very little through the air with only 170.2 YPG (110th in nation). QB Hutson Mason (687 pass yards, 7 TD, 3 INT) has not broken 200 yards through the air so far this season, but has connected on 68.3% of his passes for 6.8 YPA. All three of his interceptions have come over the past two contests, as his team failed to cover the spread in each game. The real meat of their offense comes from HB Todd Gurley who has 773 rushing yards (8.2 YPC) and eight touchdowns, and the Bulldogs are expected to fill his void mostly with HB Nick Chubb (224 rush yards, 7.2 YPC, 2 TD). Chubb has been impressive over the past two weeks, totaling 110 yards on 19 attempts (5.8 YPC) with a touchdown. Both WRs Chris Conley (200 rec. yards, 2 TD) and Michael Bennett (147 rec. yards, 2 TD) provide Mason with a safety blanket in the passing game, while WR Jeb Blazevich (139 rec. yards) has put up some big plays while averaging 19.9 yards per catch. Georgia has needed to score plenty of points as its defense has allowed 21.6 PPG and 335 YPG of total offense. Senior LB Amarlo Herrera (43 tackles, 3 sacks) hopes to lead this unit to a better performance against the Tigers on Saturday.

Missouri has a balanced offense that relies both on passing (222 YPG) and rushing (178 YPG) while scoring 34.6 PPG against mostly poor opposition. QB Maty Mauk (1,110 pass yards, 14 TD, 4 INT) had thrown multiple touchdowns in each of his first four games before being nearly a non-factor in the last game versus South Carolina, going 12-for-34 (35%) for 132 yards with 0 TD and 0 INT. HB Russell Hansbrough is the main back for this team, rushing for 420 yards (6.3 YPC) and 6 TD while being aided by HB Marcus Murphy (313 rush yards). Hansbrough had all three of the Tigers’ scores last week against South Carolina and has a touchdown in all but one game on the year. WR Bud Sasser (454 rec. yards, 4 TD) has 14 more receptions (30) than any other wideout on the team while catching at least five balls in the past five games and going over the century mark twice. WR Jimmie Hunt (198 rec. yards, 5 TD) is the biggest red-zone threat through the air, while WR Darius White (230 rec. yards, 3 TD) also provides Mauk with a reliable target. The Tigers defense has allowed 20.6 PPG (32nd in FBS) behind the play of LB Michael Scherer (50 tackles) and DLs Shane Ray (30 tackles, 7 sacks) and Markus Golden (25 tackles, 4 sacks).


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: