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No. 2 Auburn visits No. 3 Mississippi State Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/11/2014  at  6:39:00 AM
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AUBURN TIGERS (5-0)
at MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (5-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -3, Total: 63

Two of the best teams in the nation collide on Saturday afternoon when No. 2 Auburn visits No. 3 Mississippi State.

Auburn has put itself in a great position to compete for the national title after reeling off five consecutive SU victories (3-2 ATS) to start the 2014 campaign. The Tigers have had two big tests in the early going, edging Kansas State by a 20-14 score as seven-point favorites while proving to be the better team last week against LSU as they dominated with a 41-7 blowout; easily covering the 6.5-point spread it was giving. In that contest, Auburn recorded 566 total yards of offense while its defense was stingy; holding LSU to an 0-for-13 mark on third down and giving up only 142 passing yards. Mississippi State also jumped into the college football playoff picture with two straight wins over top-10 programs. First it went to LSU and pulled off the upset with a 34-29 win as touchdown underdogs, then followed that up with a very impressive performance against Texas A&M in which it dropped 48 points on the Aggies and won by 17 as 2.5-point favorites at home. The victory brought the Bulldogs to 4-1 ATS on the season as they forced three turnovers in a contest where the two teams combined for 1,085 total yards of offense. This has been a fun matchup to watch over the past few years, and while Auburn has dominated SU since 2008 (5-1), they are an even 3-3 ATS in that timeframe. Last season the Tigers were able to pull out a 24-20 win as 6.5-point favorites by scoring a touchdown in the final 10 seconds of the game. QB Dak Prescott dominated on the ground for the Bulldogs with 133 yards and two touchdowns, but it was not enough, as QB Nick Marshall threw for 339 yards and 2 TD, including the game-winner. Trends show that Auburn is 10-0 ATS after playing a conference game in the past two seasons, while Mississippi State is 18-7 ATS (72%) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games since 1992. There are no significant injuries going into this game for either team.

Which top-5 team will suffer its first loss of the season on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. Both StatFox Brian (3-1 ATS) and StatFox Dave (4-2 ATS) are coming off strong Week 6 showings.

Auburn has posted some solid offensive numbers so far, getting 497.2 YPG of total offense per game (23rd in FBS) while being dominant on the ground (268 rush YPG, 14th in nation) and scoring 42.0 PPG (15th in FBS). Their leader is dual-threat QB Nick Marshall (755 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) who has limited turnovers in the passing game while averaging 22.3 passing attempts per game. His real threat comes from his ability to run though, and has totaled 392 yards (6.8 YPC) with four touchdowns on the ground while surpassing the century mark in three of the past four contests. Joining him in the strong rushing attack is HB Cameron Artis-Payne (594 rush yards, 5 TD) who has been a workhorse with at least 22 carries in four of his five games while averaging 5.4 YPC. Last week against LSU, Artis-Payne had season highs in both rushing yards (126) and receiving yards (35), but failed to get into the end zone. WR D’haquille Williams (25 rec., 385 yards, 3 TD) has 15 more receptions than any other Tigers wideout despite recording a mere two catches in each of his past two games. The defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its five contests, as the team is allowing an average of 306.6 YPG to their opponents (14th in FBS). LB Cassanova McKinzy (35 tackles, 1 sack) leads this defense that has a tough task ahead with a trip to Starkville.

Mississippi State has run all over its opponents with 274.4 YPG on the ground (13th in FBS) while also ranking 43rd in FBS passing (269.2 YPG), leading to 42.6 PPG (13th in nation). QB Dak Prescott (1,232 pass yards, 13 TD, 2 INT) has improved in each of the past three seasons and has thrown for at least 200 yards in all of the games this season while throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past three contests. His YPA has jumped to an impressive 10.10 this year, while he continues to do a lot of damage in the run game, rushing for 455 yards (5.4 YPC) and six touchdowns on the season while scoring at least 1 TD in each of the past four games. He was also responsible for five touchdowns (2 passing, 3 rushing) in the big 48-31 victory over Texas A&M last week. The other important player in the backfield is HB Josh Robinson who has run for 592 yards (7.5 YPC) and 6 TD, while picking up at least 75 yards in each game so far. Both WRs De’Runnya Wilson (247 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Jameon Lewis (223 rec. yards, 1 TD) have looked impressive in the passing game, as nine different players have caught touchdown passes. The defense has allowed 19.4 PPG to its opposition (22nd in nation) while being led by LB Benardrick McKinney (36 tackles, 6 TFL, 3 sacks).


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