TEXAS A&M AGGIES (5-0) at MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (4-0)
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET Line: Mississippi State -2.5, Total: 70.5 Two undefeated SEC teams go head-to-head on Saturday afternoon when No. 6 Texas A&M visits No. 12 Mississippi State. The Aggies have not missed the arm of Johnny Manziel so far as they have gone 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) while defeating their opponents by an average of 36.2 PPG. This includes two big wins against both South Carolina as nine-point underdogs to open the season and Arkansas last week in overtime by a score of 35-28 as 8.5-point favorites. In that latest contest, Texas A&M had 523 total yards of offense with 386 of them coming through the air. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns tied the game, and a hookup between QB Kenny Hill and WR Malcome Kennedy earned them the win in extra time. Mississippi State is 3-1 ATS thus far and grabbed a huge victory in its most recent contest against LSU, outscoring the Tigers in Louisiana by a score of 34-29 as seven-point underdogs. The big win nearly turned into a big comeback by LSU as the Bulldogs took a 31-10 lead into the final quarter before being outscored 19-3 in the fourth, narrowly holding off their conference foes as they put up some big offensive numbers (570 yards) and ran the football for 302 yards on 6.2 YPC. Last season’s installment of this matchup saw a barnburner ensue, as the Aggies held off the Bulldogs 51-41 as 19.5-point favorites while the teams combined for 1,093 total yards with much of it coming from the Texas A&M passing attack (446 yards). Trends show that Mississippi State is a poor 16-31 ATS (34%) in home games after a contest where it forced one or fewer turnovers since 1992, while the Aggies are a woeful 2-14 ATS (13%) in road games where the total is at least 63 over the same timeframe. As far as injuries are concerned, Texas A&M does not have any significant ones, while OL Dillon Day (suspension) is out for the Bulldogs. Which SEC team will keep its win streak intact on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. The experts went a combined 19-17 ATS (53%) in the past two weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 5-2 ATS mark and StatFox Gary's 4-3 ATS record. The Aggies potent offense has averaged the nation's third-most total yards per game (594.6 YPG) while getting most of the production from passing (401.2 YPG, 5th in FBS). QB Kenny Hill (1,745 pass yards, 17 TD, 2 INT) has stepped up in a huge way this year and has 300+ yards in three of his five games while throwing 7 TD and only 1 INT in his two toughest matchups (South Carolina and Arkansas). His offensive line has been giving him plenty of time as well, with Hill absorbing a mere four sacks through the first five games. The backfield is crowded with four different runners who have at 20+ attempts and are all averaging at least 5.8 YPC. The leader there has been HB Trey Williams who has run for 234 yards on 38 attempts (6.2 YPC) while adding four touchdowns. WR Malcome Kennedy (378 rec yards, 2 TD) is the volume receiver with a team-high 33 receptions, while WRs Josh Reynolds and Edward Pope have combined to catch 32 passes for 667 yards (20.8 avg) and nine touchdowns. The defense for Texas A&M has been up to the task while allowing 15.0 PPG, as it is led by DB Deshazor Everett (29 tackles, 1 INT). Mississippi State has bulldozed its opponents with 270.8 rushing YPG (14th in FBS) while ranking among the top-50 in passing (266.8 YPG) and scoring 41.3 PPG (20th in nation). QB Dak Prescott (964 pass yards, 11 TD, 2 INT) has improved greatly since last year and was very effective against LSU, going 15-for-24 (63%) with 268 yards (11.2 YPA) and 2 TD (0 INT). The dual-threat Prescott has been even better with his legs, rushing for 378 yards (6.1 YPC) and three touchdowns while hitting the century mark with a score in each of the past three contests. HB Josh Robinson (485 rush yards, 4 TD) has had an equal number of attempts (62) as Prescott while averaging 7.8 YPC and had a season-high 197 rushing yards on 12.3 YPC with a touchdown against the Tigers. WRs Jameon Lewis (223 rec. yards, 1 TD) and De’Runnya Wilson (175 rec. yards, 4 TDs) are the only receivers on the team with double-digit receptions, while WR Fred Brown is the only other wideout with at least 100 yards (104). On the defensive side of things, the Bulldogs have given up 16.5 PPG to their opponents (17th in nation), as the unit is led by LB Benardrick McKinney (27 tackles, 2 sacks) and DB Will Redmond (14 tackles, 2 INT).
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