Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -1.5, Total: 46

The Patriots look to clear their minds of a disastrous Week 4 performance with win at home over the undefeated Bengals on Sunday night.

Cincinnati is undefeated heading into its Week 4 bye and now takes on a Patriots team that got demolished in Kansas City on Monday night. Over the past three years, the Bengals are 2-1 (SU and ATS) coming off of their bye. The last time these teams met was last October 6, with Cincinnati winning 13-6 as a two-point home underdog. The Bengals rushed for 162 yards in that game and the Pats will have their hands full again, as Cincinnati averages 121.7 rushing YPG, and New England just allowed 207 rushing yards to Kansas City on Monday. When these teams have met in Foxboro since 1992, the Pats are 4-0 SU, but only 1-3 ATS. Since becoming the coach of the Bengals, Marvin Lewis is 6-0 ATS in road games after two straight double-digit wins. However, the Patriots are 16-6 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less since 1992. They’re also 36-19 ATS after being outgained by opponents by 100+ total yards in their last game since that time. WR Marvin Jones (foot) was set to make his season debut for the Bengals in this game but injured his ankle in practice and is now questionable. His teammate LB Vontaze Burflict (stinger) is also listed as questionable.

Can the Patriots bounce back from a dreadful performance and hand the Bengals their first loss? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been hot over the past two weeks, combining for a 22-9 ATS mark (71%), while going 13-5 (72%) in NFL Totals. StatFox Scott is 7-1 ATS in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 63% ATS (10-6) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 7-2 ATS in Best Bets during these two weeks to improve to 58% ATS (11-8) on the season. StatFox Brian is 10-2 (83%) in NFL Totals this season, and a profitable 53% ATS (8-7) in NFL Best Bets.

Cincinnati has gotten off to a 3-0 start and has done so by maintaining tremendous balance on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Bengals have given up an NFL-low 11.0 PPG despite allowing a pedestrian 239.3 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 113.3 rushing yards per game (17th in NFL). They have kept opponents off the scoreboard with a stellar third-down defense (32%, 2nd in league) and strong red-zone defense (50%, T-7th). This unit has come up with timely stops and will look to get constant pressure on a porous Patriots’ offensive line. Offensively, QB Andy Dalton (722 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) is limiting his mistakes and moving the chains. He and WR A.J. Green (12 rec, 233 yards, 1 TD) are one of the best duos in the NFL, and they’ll look to exploit a defense that just got carved up by Alex Smith. The running game has really taken off this season, with RB Giovani Bernard (185 rush yards, 3 TD) emerging as a superstar. Bernard is not only a threat on the ground, but he’s also caught 12 passes for 148 yards out of the backfield. He and RB Jeremy Hill (132 rush yards, 2 TD) complement each other very well. The Bengals will lean on their running back tandem after watching the Patriots get shredded by Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on Monday night.

New England is coming off a 41-14 blowout loss in Kansas City on Monday night and now looks to turn right around and defeat one of the best teams in the NFL. The Patriots defense is allowing just 185.5 passing yards per game (1st in NFL), but they could not stop Alex Smith on Monday night, allowing him to throw for 248 yards (9.5 YPA) and 3 TD. Their rushing defense, which allows 129.8 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL), had trouble defending both Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis and the field was open for Smith to throw wherever he wanted. New England will need to find a way to minimize the production of Bengals RBs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. If the Patriots can’t stop the run, they’ll have no chance of slowing down A.J. Green and the rest of Andy Dalton’s receivers. The offense, however, will need to find a way to put up points or the defense will be able to do nothing to help this team come away with a victory. The Patriots are averaging just 20.0 PPG this season (24th in NFL) and Tom Brady (791 pass yards, 4 TD, 2 INT) is currently leading an offense that is just 30th in the league in passing yards per game (201 YPG). This is unfamiliar territory for a team that is usually amongst the league’s most potent in scoring. Brady has absorbed nine sacks, as his offensive line is not giving him time to throw, and on the rare occasion they do, he is not putting the ball in places where his receivers can catch it. This unit must start to put up points and that will begin with keeping Brady upright in the pocket.