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Chiefs aim for 3rd win in a row Sunday at 49ers
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/5/2014  at  5:28:00 AM
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-2)
at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: San Francisco -6.5, Total: 44.5

The red-hot Chiefs seek their third straight victory when they visit the 49ers on Sunday afternoon.

Kansas City has dismantled its past two opponents, beating the Dolphins and Patriots by a combined score of 75 to 29. The Chiefs will try to establish their excellent ground game (145 YPG, 4th in NFL) with the one-two punch of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, but could have difficulty against this tough San Francisco defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards in football (287 YPG). Last week, the club did not allow an offensive point, and held the Eagles to a mere 22 yards on 12 carries, which was quite a feat considering Philly led the NFL with 160.4 rushing YPG last year. Since 1992, Kansas City is 18-6 ATS when facing NFC West division opponents, but is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the past two years. The 49ers, however, are 8-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two out of their previous three games over the past three seasons. Kansas City and San Francisco have met just four times since the year 2000, with the most recent meeting between these teams occurring on September 26, 2010, when the Chiefs won 31-10 as a three-point home underdogs. TE Vernon Davis (back) and OT Anthony Davis (knee) are listed as questionable for the 49ers, as is Chiefs star S Eric Berry, who has missed the past two games with a severely sprained ankle.

Can the Chiefs keep their offense chugging against a stellar 49ers defense? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been hot over the past two weeks, combining for a 22-9 ATS mark (71%), while going 13-5 (72%) in NFL Totals. StatFox Scott is 7-1 ATS in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 63% ATS (10-6) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 7-2 ATS in Best Bets during these two weeks to improve to 58% ATS (11-8) on the season. StatFox Brian is 10-2 (83%) in NFL Totals this season, and a profitable 53% ATS (8-7) in NFL Best Bets.

Kansas City is coming off its best performance of the year, a 41-14 blowout over the Patriots on Monday night. QB Alex Smith (891 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT) picked apart the New England secondary, going 20-of-26 for 248 yards and three touchdowns. Smith now faces a much better defense in San Francisco, the team that he played for from 2005 to 2012. RB Jamaal Charles (115 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 1 TD) returned from a high ankle sprain on Monday night and dominated with three touchdowns (1 rush, 2 receiving) while rushing for 92 yards on 18 carries plus catching three passes for 16 yards. The Chiefs will heavily feature their superstar against the 49ers, as they try to control the time of possession in the game. One player who really emerged for K.C. in the win over New England was TE Travis Kelce (18 rec, 259 yards, 2 TD), who caught eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. He showed some outstanding run after the catch ability with 36 yards after contact and should be a big part of the gameplan against the 49ers. Kansas City’s defense has been good against the pass this season, allowing just 221.5 YPG through the air (8th in NFL). They are beatable on the ground, however, and must stop a solid 49ers running game.

San Francisco had to hold on tight for a win against the Eagles last week to snap a two-game losing skid. The 49ers made some costly turnovers in the game, allowing the Eagles to score one defensive TD and two special teams touchdowns (punt return and blocked punt) but they would weather the storm behind the excellent play of RB Frank Gore (258 rush yards, 4.4 YPC, 1 TD). Gore was a monster in Week 4, rushing 24 times for 119 yards (5.0 YPC) while also catching a 55-yard touchdown pass. The Chiefs are a good defensive team, so Gore will have his work cut out for him if he’s going to repeat that performance. One thing he does have going for him is that the erratic Colin Kaepernick (912 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 6 TD, 4 INT) is his quarterback. The 49ers may be best off trying to control the clock, rather than trying to throw all over a defense that frustrated Tom Brady last Monday. Kaepernick has been very up and down this season. He was 17-of-30 for 218 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles last week, but he did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. The Niners defense has been one of the best in the league to start the season and that should give them a chance to win in nearly every game they play this year. They are allowing just 217.5 passing yards per game (7th in NFL) and 69.8 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL). This matchup will ultimately come down to how the 49ers defense plays against the Chiefs’ running game.


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