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Cardinals, Dodgers aces open NLDS Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 10/3/2014  at  4:21:00 AM
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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (90-72)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (94-68)

National League Division Series - Game 1
First pitch: Friday, 6:35 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -195, St. Louis +182, Total: 5.5

Two storied franchises, the Cardinals and Dodgers, open their best-of-5 NLDS with Game 1 in L.A. on Friday night.

St. Louis just barely edged out Pittsburgh for the NL Central title by going 10-5 since Sept. 12, and then clinching the division with a 1-0 victory over Arizona on the last day of the season. With an offense ranked eighth-worst in the league in runs (619), the Cardinals earned most of their victories with solid pitching which had an overall 3.50 ERA. Their hottest hitter coming into the postseason is 1B Matt Adams (.288 BA) who has gone 11-for-34 (.324) with three doubles, 3 RBI and four runs over his past nine contests. Los Angeles played up to its potential in the 2014 campaign and beat out the Giants for the NL West title over the last series of the year. The team with the league's highest payroll finished the season on a high note with victories in eight of the final 10 games, including winning the final five contests. The offense had the best on-base percentage (.333) in all of baseball this year while scoring 718 runs (6th in majors). OF Matt Kemp (.287 BA) closed out the year in impressive form by going 12-for-30 (.400) with four home runs, 12 RBI and nine runs over his final eight contests. The pitching matchup will be a great one as RHP Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA) faces the best pitcher in baseball, LHP Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77 ERA). The Cardinals have not played well on the road this year with a 39-42 record (.481) and will be facing a Dodgers team which has gone 45-36 (.556) in front of their fans. Since the beginning of the 2012 campaign, L.A. is 14-11 in this matchup while going a solid 9-5 at home, including taking 3-of-4 games at Chavez Ravine earlier this season. Bettors should keep an eye on the fact that the Dodgers are only 19-26 (.422) after two or more consecutive wins this season while going 50-27 (.649) after having won six or seven of their previous eight games over the past two seasons. The Cardinals come into this game with no injuries, while SS Dee Gordon (hip) is listed as day-to-day for the host Dodgers.

Adam Wainwright has won 19 or more games in four of his past five seasons while pitching under a 2.95 ERA, and has thrown at least 198 frames in each of the past five years. His consistency has come from his ability to control the strike zone with a walk rate of 2.0 BB/9 in 2014 while holding batters to a mere 10 homers in his 227 innings (0.40 HR/9). Wainwright finished off the season in spectacular fashion, going 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA while having a 39:5 K/BB ration in five September starts. Despite a 4-6 career record (6-7 team record) against his opponent, Wainwright has a strong 2.83 ERA and 1.10 WHIP when facing the Dodgers. He has lost his past three outings in this matchup despite allowing only six runs in 22 frames. OF Andre Ethier (9-for-33, 3 doubles, 2 HR, 6 RBI) has been one of the few L.A. players able to produce off of the ace, while 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Matt Kemp and SS Hanley Ramirez are a combined 12-for-66 (.182) with 15 strikeouts when facing Wainwright. The relievers for St. Louis are 26-23 (.531) this year with a 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and have been successful saving games in 55-of-72 (76%) attempts. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (3.20 ERA, 45 saves) allowed far too many free passes (5.4 BB/9) while holding opposing hitters to just 0.26 HR/9 and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings.

Clayton Kershaw has been in a league of his own over the past few seasons with an ERA under 3.00 in each of the past six years while pitching to a mark better than a 2.00 ERA in each of the past two years. Amazingly, Kershaw improved on his 2013 Cy Young performance with a career-best 1.77 ERA, 10.9 K/9 and 1.41 BB/9 this season. He has kept 81.6% of runners on base in 2014 and forced 51.8% of balls in play to be hit on the ground, which are also both career-best marks. He has allowed more than three runs just once on the year and was a perfect 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA over the final month of the regular season. Kershaw has actually not done too well against the Cardinals in his career, going 5-7 (8-9 team record) with a 3.69 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but he did throw a quality start in both of his outings this year, including seven shutout innings with 13 K's at Dodger Stadium on June 29. OF Peter Bourjos (4-for-11, 1 HR, 2 RBI) is the only player on the St. Louis roster with a homer against the lefty while OF Matt Holliday (9-for-35, 10 K's, 10 BB's) and 3B Matt Carpenter (5-for-18, 4 K's) have been decent in the matchup. In the regular season, L.A.’s bullpen was a subpar 18-24 (.429) with a 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, while going 47-for-61 (77%) in save opportunities. Closer Kenley Jansen (2.76 ERA, 44 saves) struck out a wealth of batters (13.9 K/9) and was on the losing side of batters hitting .350 BABIP against him.


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