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Packers, Bears collide Sunday at Soldier Field
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/28/2014  at  3:45:00 AM
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GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-2)
at CHICAGO BEARS (2-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -1.5, Total: 50

Two division rivals clash on Sunday when the Bears host the Packers.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook "Against the Grain Picks" for BetDSI's top Week 4 wagers:

Green Bay had a miserable outing in Detroit last week, losing 19-7 and finishing with just 223 total yards. The team should move the football much better against a depleted Bears secondary. Getting RB Eddie Lacy (113 rush yards, 3.1 YPC, 0 TD) back on track would be a big boost for the Packers. Marc Trestman, however, will have RB Matt Forte (136 rush yards, 3.2 YPC, 0 TD) more than ready to run against a defense that is allowing 156.0 rushing yards per game. Chicago is coming off a 27-19 victory over the Jets on Monday night, but this club has been dominated by Green Bay recently, as the Packers are 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in the past eight meetings, including 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the past four trips to Soldier Field. Although the Bears are 1-8 ATS under Trestman when facing poor defensive teams (350+ YPG allowed), the Packers are 12-23 ATS under Mike McCarthy when playing poor passing defenses (7+ YPA allowed). The big injury to watch in this game is Bears WR Brandon Marshall, who will likely be a game-time decision with his injured ankle. LBs Clay Matthews (groin) and Brad Jones (thigh) are listed as questionable for the Packers in this game, while safeties Chris Conte (shoulder) and Ryan Mundy (stinger) could be out for the Bears.

Which NFC North team will prevail on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts were on fire in Week 3, combining for a 13-3 ATS mark (81%), while going 8-1 (89%) in NFL Totals. StatFox Dave was 5-0 ATS in Best Bets to improve to 60% ATS (9-6) on the season. StatFox Scott was 4-0 ATS in Best Bets and 3-0 in Totals in Week 3, while StatFox Brian had his third straight perfect week of Totals at 3-0, and is now 9-0 for the season.

Green Bay had seemingly found their offense in a 31-24 victory over the New York Jets, but they followed that up with a 19-7 loss in Detroit. QB Aaron Rodgers (697 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 5 TD, 1 INT) was just 16-of-27 for 162 yards with one touchdown in the contest. He is relied on to do a lot more for his team and will likely do much better against Chicago, who he is 9-3 against (SU and ATS) in his career with 236 passing YPG, 21 TD and 8 INT. He should find some more success against a Bears defense ravaged with injuries, especially in the secondary. RB Eddie Lacy rushed for just 36 yards in the loss to Detroit, but the Packers must get him going, as this was supposed to be a breakout year for the former Alabama star. He needs to be more decisive with the football and attack a Bears defense that is allowing 144.7 yards per game on the ground (26th in NFL) on 5.1 yards per carry (25th in league). WR Jordy Nelson (23 rec, 351 yards, 1 TD) followed up his 209-yard performance against the Jets in Week 2 with five catches for 59 yards against Detroit. He will constantly find ways to get open against this banged-up secondary for the Bears. The Packers defense will need to focus on slowing down a potent offense. Green Bay is allowing 156.0 yards per game on the ground (30th in NFL) and that could be a problem with Matt Forte coming to town. The Packers have been solid against the pass this season, allowing just 198.3 yards per game through the air (6th in NFL), and they’ll need to keep up that solid play with a matchup against Jay Cutler coming up.

The Bears started their season with a 23-20 overtime loss in Buffalo, but have since turned it around by beating the 49ers 28-20 on the road in Week 2 and then earning a 27-19 victory on the road versus the Jets on Monday night. QB Jay Cutler (750 pass yards, 6.2 YPA, 8 TD, 2 INT) was brilliant for the Bears last week, going 23-of-38 for 225 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He will need to carry this momentum into this matchup with a solid Packers’ secondary whose defense is coming off of a game in which they held Matthew Stafford to zero touchdowns while picking him off twice. WR Alshon Jeffery (16 rec, 223 yards) had his best game of the year in Week 3, hauling in eight passes for 105 yards. He had been dealing with a bad hamstring, but looked the healthiest he has all season. The Bears will be relying on him Sunday, but no player is more important to the team than RB Matt Forte. Chicago has not run the ball that well all year and now has a matchup against a Green Bay defense that is 30th in the league in rushing defense. The Bears will need to feed Forte the ball often in order to dominate the clock and let him eat up yards. They did exactly that last season, and Forte recorded 336 total yards and four touchdowns in the two meetings.


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