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Yankees desperate for win Tuesday vs. Orioles
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/23/2014  at  4:55:00 AM
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BALTIMORE ORIOLES (93-63)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (81-75)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: New York -155, Baltimore +145, Total: 7.5

The Yankees try to keep their slim playoff chances alive when they host the division-leading Orioles on Tuesday night.

Baltimore was one of the first teams to clinch its division, and the offense has been dominant throughout the year with most homers (202) among all MLB teams. The O's have won 11 of their past 15 games, but have lost three of their last four including Monday night’s 5-0 loss. In the contest, they managed one single hit, including an 0-for-3 performance from the league’s home run leader; OF Nelson Cruz (.269 BA). In his past 10 games, Cruz has gone 14-for-39 (.359) with five doubles and 5 RBI. New York is hot right now, but it may be too late as the club sits four games out of the second Wild Card spot. Coming into this game, the Yankees have won five of their past six contests; including the shutout against Baltimore on Monday. Starter Michael Pineda had a great game (7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 8 Ks) while SS Derek Jeter (.256 BA) added 3 RBI, and 3B Chase Headley (.253 BA) had a solo homer. Jeter’s career is near its end and he has been making the most of it with a current six-game hitting streak in which he is 10-for-24 (.417) with three doubles, a home run, 6 RBI and four runs. The pitching matchup in this contest pegs Baltimore RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (5-9, 4.90 ERA) and RHP Brandon McCarthy (10-14, 3.93 ERA) for the host Yankees. The road has not given the Orioles much of an issue, as they are 42-32 (.568) away from home, while New York is 42-36 (.538) in the Bronx. Over the past three seasons, Baltimore holds the edge over the Yankees with a 31-27 record (.534) against its division foe, while being a tremendous 11-5 in 2014. Bettors should know that the Orioles are 21-12 (.636) when the total is 7.5 or less this year, while New York is 23-12 (.657) after batting .240 or worse over a 20-game span in 2014. As far as injuries are concerned, Baltimore will continue to be without C Matt Wieters (elbow) and 3B Manny Machado (knee) for the rest of the season, while the Yankees have 1B Mark Teixeira (wrist), OF Carlos Beltran (elbow) and OF Jacoby Ellsbury (hamstring) listed as day-to-day.

There are two sides to Ubaldo Jimenez, as he is either an ace or one of the more unreliable pitchers in the game. Unfortunately for the Orioles, they got the unreliable side, as he has posted a career-high walk rate of 5.6 BB/9, while allowing more than a home run per nine innings (1.06 HR/9). He has issued at least three walks in seven of his past 10 games while going at least six innings four times over those outings. He has never done well against the Yankees with a 1-4 record (1-5 team record), while carrying a 5.79 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. He has allowed five runs on 14 hits over his two starts (10.1 IP) this season, both of which the Orioles lost. OF Carlos Beltran (6-for-15, 2 doubles, 2 HR, 3 RBI) is day-to-day, and the Yanks will hope he plays with his solid past against Jimenez, while C Brian McCann (9-for-31, 1 HR, 3 RBI) has also done well. Meanwhile, 1B Mark Teixeira, SS Derek Jeter and OF Brett Gardner are a combined 5-for-39 (.128) with 13 strikeouts in the matchup. The Orioles’ relievers have combined to go 28-20 (.583) this year with a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and are 50-for-69 (72%) in their save opportunities. Zach Britton (1.72 ERA, 35 saves) is 35-for-39 (90%) in his own save chances while benefitting from batters hitting a mere .213 BABIP.

Brandon McCarthy has been a different pitcher since being acquired by the Yankees and is 7-4 with a 2.54 ERA over 13 starts with his new club. Most of his peripherals have remained the same while he has decreased his home-run rate from 1.23 HR/9 in his time with Arizona to a mere 0.74 HR/9 with New York. He has thrown at least six innings in nine of his past 10 outings, and has not allowed more than two walks in any of those starts. Just a few games ago (Sept. 12), he faced this Orioles team with great results (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 6 K's) and is 2-1 (2-5 team record) with a 3.07 ERA and 1.34 WHIP against them in his career. Both OF Alejandro De Aza (5-for-9, 2 doubles, 1 RBI) and SS J.J. Hardy (3-for-9, 1 double) have done well in this matchup in limited at-bats, while OFs Nick Markakis (3-for-16, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 K's) and Nelson Cruz (3-for-22, 2 RBI, 3 K's) have not seen the ball well out of his hands. New York’s bullpen has gone 24-27 (.471) with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 2014, and has successfully saved 47-of-67 (70%) games. Closer David Robertson (2.79 ERA, 38 saves) has struck out 13.4 batters per nine innings while blowing four saves on the year.


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