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Royals visit Indians in crucial game Monday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/22/2014  at  3:19:00 AM
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KANSAS CITY ROYALS (84-70)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (81-74)

First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Cleveland -120, Kansas City +110, Total: 7

The Indians hope to gain some ground on the Royals in the AL Wild Card race when they host their division rivals on Monday night.

Kansas City has had one of its best years in a very long time and is currently 1.5 games behind in the AL Central Division and 1.5 games ahead of Seattle for the second Wild Card spot. The Royals have fallen off recently though, losing nine of their past 15 games, including a series loss over the weekend to the division-leading Tigers. They were nearly swept, but were able to grab a win on Sunday by a score of 5-2 as the offense tallied 11 hits. OF Norichika Aoki (.282 BA) has been the club's hottest hitter, going 14-for-22 (.636) with two doubles, a triple, 3 RBI and three runs in his past six games. Cleveland is 3.5 games behind Kansas City for that final Wild Card spot and has turned it on of late after winning five of its past six contests. The club dominated the Twins on the road over the past two games, outscoring them 14-5 between Saturday and Sunday while backing starter Corey Kluber (8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 14 K's) with 14 hits in Sunday’s victory. OF Michael Brantley (.325 BA) is having an absolutely amazing September, going 32-for-78 (.410) with five doubles, two homers, 10 RBI, 11 runs and five steals in 21 games. LHP Danny Duffy (8-11, 2.42 ERA) makes his return to the mound after leaving his last start (Sept. 6) with an injury after just one pitch. For the host Indians, RHP Carlos Carrasco (8-5, 2.65 ERA) takes the mound with a 5-1 record in his past eight outings. On the road, Kansas City has gone a solid 42-32 (.568), but will have trouble facing a Cleveland club that is an impressive 45-30 (.600) at home. These two clubs have split their 52 games (26-26) over the past three seasons while the Indians have a slight edge (8-7) in 2014. Their home dominance has been evident in this series, as they are 5-2 at Progressive Field this year. Bettors should be aware that the Royals are 45-30 (.600) when the money line is +125 to -125 in 2014, while Cleveland is 32-13 (.711) in home games against left-handed starters over the past two years. The only injury for Kansas City is that of 2B Christian Colon (finger) who is on the DL, while the Indians are without 1B Nick Swisher (knee) for the rest of the year and have SS Zach Walters (ribs) listed as day-to-day.

Danny Duffy has struggled with injuries throughout his young career, but has been extremely effective when on the mound. He has pitched a career-high 29 games (23 starts) and 141.1 innings in 2014 and has a sub-2.50 ERA partly due to batters hitting a mere .232 BABIP against him. Duffy has done well this season despite a below-average strikeout rate (6.9 K/9), as he has walked the fewest batters of his career (3.2 BB/9). In eight of his previous nine outings, not including his one-pitch start, Duffy has allowed more than two earned runs once and given up a meager three homers in that time (57 IP). Against Cleveland, the lefty is 1-1 (2-2 team record) with a 3.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and threw seven scoreless innings while allowing two hits with seven strikeouts (2 walks) in a no-decision earlier this season on July 24. OF Michael Brantley (5-for-13, 2 RBI), C Yan Gomes (5-for-10, 1 HR, 2 RBI) and 1B Carlos Santana (6-for-16, 1 HR, 2 RBI) have had no trouble in this matchup, while 2B Jason Kipnis, OF Michael Bourn and 3B Lonnie Chisenhall are a combined 2-for-23 (.087) with a solo homer and six strikeouts. The Royals’ bullpen is 26-16 (.619) with a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while saving 49-of-61 (80%) games. Greg Holland (1.52 ERA, 43 saves) is one of the elite closers in the league, striking out 13.0 batters per nine innings while blowing just two games.

Carlos Carrasco spent much of 2014 in the bullpen, but the team is extremely happy to have him as a mainstay in the rotation now, as he is 5-1 (5-3 team record) with a miniscule 1.17 ERA over his past eight starts. As a starter (12 games), Carrasco has a 2.84 ERA while batters are hitting a meager .206 against him, and he has allowed a mere four homers in 76 innings (0.47 HR/9). His strikeout rate as a starter (9.7 K/9) is actually better than it was when he was in the bullpen (8.2 K/9), and he has continued to show tremendous control (1.9 BB/9). Carrasco had his best start of the year last week against the Astros when he threw a two-hit shutout while striking out 12 hitters and walking only one. In his starts against the Royals though, Carrasco is 2-2 (3-3 team record) with a horrible 5.24 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but was great against them in a no-decision last year (7.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 K's). DH Billy Butler has mashed Carrasco in his career, going 7-for-17 with 2 HR and 4 RBI, while 3B Mike Moustakas (0-for-6), OF Alex Gordon (2-for-14, 6 K's) and C Salvador Perez (1-for-7) have done poorly in the matchup. Cleveland’s relievers are a combined 33-22 (.600) with a 3.16 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while going 36-of-58 (62%) in save opportunities. Closer Cody Allen (2.13 ERA, 22 saves) has blown four saves on the year while having an impressive strikeout rate (11.8 K/9) and has left 83% of runners on base.


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