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No. 3 Alabama favored big over Florida Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/20/2014  at  5:09:00 AM
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FLORIDA GATORS (2-0)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -14.5, Total: 52.5

No. 3 Alabama looks to stay undefeated when it hosts Florida in a classic SEC matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Florida is certainly not as dominant as it once was, but has kicked off the 2014 season with two consecutive SU wins (1-1 ATS) by gaining at least 530 yards of total offense in both victories. Their opener was a cakewalk, as they routed Eastern Michigan 65-0 as 41-point favorites at home, but did not fare so well in their second contest against Kentucky. It took three overtimes to defeat the 18-point underdog Wildcats, as the Gators eventually held off their pesky opponents by a score of 36-30 at home. They gained 532 yards of offense in the victory, including running for 237 yards, and forced three turnovers. Alabama has opened the year with three consecutive SU wins, but has yet to cover a spread, going 0-2-1 ATS while being a favorite of at least 22 points in all three games. Over the past two contests against Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss, the Crimson Tide have given up a combined 12 points and 408 total yards. In their most recent game, a 52-12 win over the 45.5-point underdog Golden Eagles, Alabama averaged 7.5 yards per play and smoked their opponent for 333 yards on the ground. These programs have not met since 2011, but the Crimson Tide hold a three-game winning streak in the matchup (both SU and ATS) while dominating the last time they met up in a 38-10 win as a 4-point favorite on the road. The scores in the past four meetings in Tuscaloosa have all been one-sided too, with the Tide prevailing 34-7, 31-3, 32-13 and 31-6. Bettors should be aware of a few telling trends, including the fact that Florida is 11-2 ATS (85%) after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992, while ‘Bama is 12-3 ATS (80%) over the same timeframe in home games after gaining at least 7.25 yards per play in its previous contest. The only injury to keep an eye on this week is that of WR DeAndrew White (shoulder) who is listed as questionable for Alabama.

Will Alabama blow out Florida again on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. During the 2013 season, StatFox Dave led the experts with a 55% ATS mark (38-31-2), while Gary and Brian both finished with another winning season (51% ATS). StatFox Scott saved his best for last with a 5-2 ATS mark (71%) in college football bowl Best Bets.

Florida has put up elite offensive numbers through its first two contests, tallying 345.5 YPG in the air (12th in FBS) and 248 YPG on the ground (25th in nation) while scoring 50.5 PPG. QB Jake Driskel (543 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT) has looked solid after suffering a broken leg last year, as he has already had more than 40 attempts in each game (6.2 YPA) while going 25-for-43 (58%) with 293 yards and 3 TD (1 INT) against Kentucky last weekend. The rushing attack has been very efficient behind HB Matt Jones (221 yards, 2 TD) who tallied 156 yards (5.4 YPC) and a touchdown against Kentucky. HB Kelvin Taylor (123 yards, 2 TD) has provided a nice change of pace and scored twice in the team’s season opener. WR Demarcus Robinson has been dominant as the team’s No. 1 target in the passing game with 339 yards (16.1 avg) and 3 TD. The sophomore was untouchable against the Wildcats, as he racked up 216 yards and pulled in two scores among his 14 receptions (14.4 avg). DL Dante Fowler Jr. (9 tackles, 1 sack) is one of the elite linemen in the nation, and hopes he can help the Gators and their defense, which has allowed 287.5 YPG (15th in FBS), slow down a tough Alabama offense.

Alabama once again brings to the table a lethal combination of passing (298 YPG, 33rd in FBS) and rushing (270.3 YPG, 17th in FBS) that has helped the club drop 42.0 PPG on opponents. QB Blake Sims (646 pass yards, 10.1 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT) has been great as the starter, while throwing all his touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two victories while adding to the run game with 102 rushing yards (7.3 YPC) and two scores. There will also be no worries if Sims goes down, as backup QB Jake Coker (248 yards, 1 TD) has already proven he can lead under center if he's needed. The Crimson Tide have incredible depth at the running back position with HB T.J. Yeldon (225 yards, 5.8 YPC, 2 TD) leading the group. He has had less of a workload over the past two games (16 attempts) with them being blowouts, but he showed what he can do over a full contest in the opener, going for 126 yards on 23 attempts (5.5 YPC) and 2 TD against West Virginia. HBs Derrick Henry (209 yards, 1 TD) and Kenyan Drake (97 yards, 4 TD) are behind Yeldon on the depth chart, but each hold tons of talent and are dominant when in the game. WR Amari Cooper has 33 of the team’s 68 catches in 2014 while getting 454 yards (13.8 avg) and two touchdowns. He has had over 130 yards in each of the three victories while twice grabbing double-digit receptions. The stout defense has allowed a mere 11.7 PPG (10th in nation) while giving up just 267 YPG (10th in FBS). This side of the ball is led by the tandem of LB Trey DePriest (10 tackles) and DB Landon Collins (24 tackles) who both expect to play on Sundays come 2015.


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