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Patriots visit Peterson-less Vikings Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/14/2014  at  5:15:00 AM
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (0-1)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -3, Total: 49

The Patriots will try to rebound from a Week 1 loss when they visit a Vikings team on Sunday in the outdoor venue of TCF Bank Stadium. Minnesota will not have star RB Adrian Peterson who was indicted on child abuse charges on Friday.

New England held a 10-point lead in the second half at division rival Miami, but was outscored 23-0 the rest of the way in a 33-20 defeat. Minnesota, on the other hand, had no problem with its Week 1 opponent, going on the road to crush the Rams 34-6. The Patriots were gashed by the Dolphins' run game in their opener, allowing 191 yards on 38 carries (5.0 YPC), but they will not have to face the powerful legs of deactivated Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, who has rushed for more than 10,000 yards in his career. Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon will spilt the carries while Peterson is out. New England also has to account for a passing game led by former teammate QB Matt Cassel, who was very efficient in Week 1 when he completed 17-of-25 passes for 170 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. These clubs play only once every four years, but New England QB Tom Brady has led his team to victory in each of the past three meetings (2-1 ATS), outscoring Minnesota 83-42 and throwing for 851 yards, 8 TD and 1 INT in the matchups. The Patriots must also feel good about the fact that they haven't started 0-2 since 2001 and that they are 39-21 ATS mark (65%) after an SU loss under head coach Bill Belichick. This includes a 16-6 ATS record (73%) coming off a double-digit defeat, and an 11-2 ATS mark (85%) in road games after a road loss. But the Vikings are 13-3 ATS (81%) following a road game since the start of 2012, and are 10-4 ATS (71%) at home in this same timeframe. Both teams have some key defensive injuries, as New England LB Jamie Collins (thigh) is doubtful, while DLs Chris Jones and Michael Buchanan are both questionable with ankle injuries. For Minnesota, four key defenders are all listed as questionable -- DT Sharrif Floyd (shoulder), CB Xavier Rhodes (groin) and LBs Brandon Watts (knee) and Michael Mauti (foot).

Can the Vikings put the Patriots in an 0-2 hole? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. During the 2013 campaign, the experts combined for a 52% ATS success rate in NFL Best Bets, highlighted by Brian's 60% ATS mark (41-27-6). Scott had a 54% ATS accuracy (36-31-3) on NFL Best Bets, while Gary was 53% ATS (26-23-3). Scott also thrived with his NFL Totals, finishing at 56% (40-31), capped off by a perfect 5-0 run in the postseason. Brian started the 2014 season with a perfect 3-0 record on NFL Totals and a 3-2 ATS mark in Best Bets for Week 1.

The Patriots held the football for nearly half of Week 1 (29:33), but the Dolphins were able to pressure him QB Tom Brady all game and wound up with four sacks. Despite throwing 56 times, Brady finished with only 249 yards (4.4 YPA) and 1 TD. That touchdown toss went to TE Rob Gronkowski, who despite playing less than half the snaps as he returns from a torn ACL, led the team with 12 targets. Gronkowski should get more playing time on Sunday, and will be a tough matchup for a Vikings team that allowed 13 touchdowns to opposing tight ends last year, which was the second-most in the NFL. Brady always spreads out the wealth though, as WR Julian Edelman, WR Kenbrell Thompkins and RB Shane Vereen all saw at least eight targets in Week 1. With the Vikings having the league's second-worst pass defense last year (287 YPG allowed), expect Brady to throw early and often. New England shouldn't entirely abandon the ground game, but the club needs more out of RB Stevan Ridley who gained only 21 yards on eight carries last week. Defensively, the Patriots must pressure Matt Cassel into making poor throws, as they sacked Miami QB Ryan Tannehill only once last week. But the New England defense is always opportunistic, and opened its season with three forced turnovers.

The Vikings did a great job in mixing pass and run in Week 1 under new head coach Mike Zimmer and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. In addition to QB Matt Cassel completing 68% of his 25 throws for 170 yards through the air, they also rushed 32 times for 185 yards (5.8 YPC). Although RB Matt Asiata has only 49 career rushing attempts, he should have a big afternoon against the Patriots rushing defense. RB Jerick McKinnon, a rookie from Georgia Southern had only one carry last week for one yard. But the biggest rushing play of Week 1 went to speedy WR Cordarrelle Patterson, whose 67-yard touchdown run in the third quarter put the game out of reach, and was a big chunk of his 102 yards on three carries. Patterson wasn't as effective as a receiver with 26 yards on three catches, as WR Greg Jennings saw a team-high seven targets and caught six of those passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. TE Kyle Rudolph caught the other TD pass, but New England has allowed only 6 TD to opposing tight ends in the past two seasons (17 games). The defense also played outstanding under new defensive coordinator George Edwards, picking up five sacks and two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by FS Harrison Smith. The unit held the Rams to 3.3 yards per carry, but did give up 7.6 yards per pass attempts to a pair of backup signal callers in Shaun Hill and Austin Davis. That doesn't bode well for Sunday with a future Hall of Famer in Tom Brady paying the Vikings a visit.


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