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Broncos favored big over Chiefs Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/14/2014  at  5:11:00 AM
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-1)
at DENVER BRONCOS (1-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -12.5, Total: 51.5

Two AFC West rivals collide on Sunday when the Broncos host the Chiefs.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Kansas City got off to a terrible start in Week 1, getting embarrassed 26-10 by the Titans in Arrowhead Stadium. QB Alex Smith struggled with 3 INT in his team’s defeat. Denver, on the other hand, took down the Colts 31-24 behind 269 yards and three touchdowns from QB Peyton Manning. If the Chiefs defense had that much trouble against Jake Locker and the Titans, they’ll be in for a long day facing the best offense in the league. The Broncos defense also looked excellent at times against the Colts, so Alex Smith will really need to get his offense going. Last season, the Broncos won-and-covered in both meetings with Kansas City, including a 27-17 victory as a 7.5-point favorite at home. The Chiefs are 16-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 1992. Denver, however, is 19-7 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past three years. In addition to the absorbing a loss in the standings, Kansas City also lost both LB Derrick Johnson and DE Mike DeVito with season-ending Achilles injuries. Also, S Eric Berry (quad) and Husain Abdullah (quad) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs, but the Broncos have no significant new injuries.

Can the Broncos cover the huge spread against their AFC West rival? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. During the 2013 campaign, the experts combined for a 52% ATS success rate in NFL Best Bets, highlighted by Brian's 60% ATS mark (41-27-6). Scott had a 54% ATS accuracy (36-31-3) on NFL Best Bets, while Gary was 53% ATS (26-23-3). Scott also thrived with his NFL Totals, finishing at 56% (40-31), capped off by a perfect 5-0 run in the postseason. Brian started the 2014 season with a perfect 3-0 record on NFL Totals and a 3-2 ATS mark in Best Bets for Week 1.

After signing a big contract extension in the offseason, Chiefs QB Alex Smith had a horrible season opener, throwing for 202 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Smith had not thrown that many picks in a regular-season game since October 14, 2012, and he will need to make better decisions against an improved Broncos secondary. Head coach Andy Reid must also call the game better from the sidelines, as he completely dropped the ball with his opening week gameplan with allowing star RB Jamaal Charles to get only seven carries in the game. If the Chiefs are going to have any chance against the Broncos, Charles will need to have a great game. WR Donnie Avery led the team in receiving with seven catches for 84 yards, and the return of suspended WR Dwayne Bowe should really help open up the field for the rest of this offense. The Chiefs defense was a major letdown in the opening week, but it could get worse as they face the best offense in the NFL.

Peyton Manning’s season started off the right way with the quarterback picking up right where he left off from his record-setting 2013 season when he threw for 5,477 yards and 55 TD. He’ll look to exploit a Kansas City defense that is now depleted with injuries and coming off a game where they made the Titans look unbeatable. RB Montee Ball is now the featured back in this offense and he started off the year with 23 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown. He also caught two passes for 16 yards. TE Julius Thomas, however, was the Broncos’ most utilized weapon. Thomas caught all three of Manning’s touchdown passes and finished with seven receptions for 104 yards. With WR Wes Welker suspended, Denver made it a goal to force the ball to the athletic tight end. DE DeMarcus Ware’s Broncos debut was a good one, as he had 1.5 sacks and two QB hits in the game. He will add a pass-rushing element to this defense that the team lacked a year ago. Rahim Moore was also excellent for Denver. The safety intercepted Andrew Luck twice in the opener, and will make Alex Smith pay if he makes any mistakes like he did in Week 1.


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