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Royals, Tigers play key division game Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 9/10/2014  at  6:17:00 AM
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KANSAS CITY ROYALS (79-64)

at DETROIT TIGERS (80-65)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Detroit -115, Kansas City +105, Total: 7.5

The battle for the AL Central division rumbles on as the Kansas City Royals take on the Tigers in Detroit on Wednesday night.

The Royals have put up a huge effort this year and are currently tied with their opponent, the Tigers, for the lead in the AL Central. They come into this contest as winners of five of their past eight games, but have relinquished their two-game division lead with losses to Detroit over the first couple of contests in this series. Kansas City has been outscored 13-7 over the two defeats, and could not overcome a strong start from Max Scherzer on Tuesday night as the team fell 4-2 despite out-hitting the Tigers 10-8. In the loss, 2B Omar Infante was 3-for-5 and has at least one hit in nine of his past 10 games, in which he is 12-for-42 (.286) with a double and three stolen bases. With a win in six of its past nine games, Detroit has tied for the division lead and hit two timely homers off the bats of OF Rajai Davis (.286 BA) and OF J.D. Martinez (.305 BA) on Tuesday to earn their 4-2 victory. In the game, 1B Miguel Cabrera (.311 BA) hit his AL-leading 45th double and is now on a nine-game hitting streak in which he is 18-for-38 (.474) with three doubles, five homers, 10 RBI and nine runs. Toeing the rubber for the Royals in this crucial game will be their ace, RHP James Shields (13-7, 3.23 ERA), as he attempts to outpitch RHP Rick Porcello (15-10, 3.30 ERA) of the host Tigers. Kansas City has had no issues on the road, putting together a 41-32 record (.562), and will be going against a Detroit team that is now 38-32 at home (.543) after Tuesday’s win. The Tigers have owned this season series, winning 11-of-15 contests between the two teams, and are 33-19 (.635) in the matchup over the past three years. Over the past six contests between these division rivals, Detroit has outscored the Royals 38-18. Some trends to keep an eye on include that Kansas City is 43-27 (.614) when the money line is +125 to -125 this year while the Tigers are 41-25 (.621) when Porcello is pitching and the total is 7 to 8.5. Neither team has any significant injuries to their offenses for this game.

This type of matchup is exactly why the Royals traded top prospect Wil Myers for James Shields before the 2013 season. He has been one of the most reliable starters in the league, going at least 200 innings in each of the past eight seasons while posting a 3.55 ERA or better in the past four years. Shields has seen his strikeout rate drop in each season since 2012, but has dealt with the decline with a walk rate of 1.80 BB/9; his best number since the 2008 campaign (1.7 BB/9). In his last 12 outings, this ace has allowed more than three earned runs just once while getting 10 quality starts. He has a 2.26 ERA and 1.03 WHIP during this dozen-start timeframe. His last game was nearly perfect when he faced the Yankees and threw 8.1 scoreless innings on a mere three hits and zero walks while striking out six batters. Overall in his career against the Tigers (17 starts), Shields is 6-5 (10-7 team record) with a mediocre 4.37 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while being 0-3 (0-4 team record) in his past four outings. Plenty of Detroit’s players have done well in this matchup with 1B Miguel Cabrera (19-for-50, 8 doubles, 2 HR, 8 RBI), C Alex Avila (9-for-28, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 13 K's), OF J.D. Martinez (5-for-12, 1 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBI) and DH Victor Martinez (13-for-41, 4 doubles, 1 HR, 6 RBI) all having success. Meanwhile, 3B Nick Castellanos (1-for-5, 2 K's) and OF Rajai Davis (2-for-18, 3 K's) have not been able to pick up on the righty's pitches. The Royals’ bullpen has been strong all season, going 25-15 (.625) with a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while saving 47-of-57 (82%) chances. Greg Holland (1.60 ERA, 42 saves) is one of the best closers in baseball while striking out plenty of batters (12.8 K/9) and leaving 82.7% of runners on base.

Rick Porcello is finally pitching to his potential in 2014 after four straight seasons of an ERA at 4.30 or higher. He wins his games with finesse instead of overpowering batters, as he has struck out a mere 5.4 batters per nine innings while having some of the best control (1.7 BB/9) in the majors. His sinker has also helped induce groundballs 49.4% of the time, which has led to him leaving a solid 72.9% of runners on base. Porcello has faltered a little lately though, giving up double-digit hits in three of his past five outings, as the Tigers are a meager 3-7 over his past 10 starts. San Francisco torched him in his last game, as he lasted just three innings and allowed six runs (5 ER) on 10 hits while striking out one batter (1 walk). He has now gone against the Royals 17 times in his young career, compiling an 8-3 record (12-5 team record) with a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and has earned a win each time he has faced them in 2014. OF Josh Willingham (8-for-21, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 7 K's), OF Alex Gordon (11-for-34, 2 HR, 7 RBI) and DH Billy Butler (16-for-47, 4 doubles, 1 HR, 8 RBI) have really excelled against the sinkerball pitcher, while C Salvador Perez and SS Alcides Escobar are a combined 4-for-42 (.095) with seven strikeouts in the matchup. The relievers on Detroit have combined to go 18-16 (.529) with a bloated 4.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, and have converted only 35-of-49 (71%) save opportunities. Closer Joe Nathan (4.85 ERA, 30 saves) has struggled with his control (4.3 BB/9), but has not given up a free pass or run in his past five outings spanning five innings.


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