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Nats try to take down slumping Braves Tuesday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 9/9/2014  at  5:43:00 AM
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ATLANTA BRAVES (74-70)

at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (81-61)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Washington -140, Atlanta +130, Total: 7

The Atlanta Braves look grab a win and inch closer to the second NL Wild Card spot when they face the Nationals in Washington on Tuesday.

The Braves currently sit 1.5 games behind Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot as they have lost six of their past nine contests. Their offense has been putrid with a mere 529 runs (2nd-worst in the league) and have tallied just 1.8 runs per game in their past nine contest, including being shut out four times. In its first game of this series, Atlanta took a 2-1 loss as it managed only four hits. 1B Freddie Freeman (.291 BA) has been the best hitter on the club, and has a five-game hitting streak coming into Tuesday where he is 7-for-20 (.350) with a homer and 2 RBI. Washington seems to have a lock on the NL East with an eight-game cushion over Atlanta and is 6-4 over its past 10 contests. Their pitching has been stellar over the past two games as they have allowed a mere three runs total and received a big start from Doug Fister on Monday night (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K's). With four homers and 10 RBI in his past five games, 1B Adam LaRoche (.263 BA) has provided much of the team’s offense. The pitching matchup in the game should be a good one with RHP Ervin Santana (14-7, 3.61 ERA) going for the Braves, and he will face RHP Jordan Zimmermann (10-5, 2.93 ERA) of the host Nationals. Atlanta’s biggest problems have come on the road where it is 34-39 (.466) on the year, and has a tough task ahead with Washington owning the best home record in the National League at 45-27. This matchup has gone in the Braves favor over the past three seasons as they hold a 30-21 edge (.588) in that time while going a solid 9-5 (4-4 in Washington) in 2014. Atlanta has really struggled over the past three games in this series, scoring a single run in each of the three contests. Some interesting trends for this matchup include that the Braves are 14-6 (.700) this season in road games after having lost four or five of their previous six games, while going 21-38 (.356) on the road when the total is seven or less in the past two seasons. In injury news, C/OF Evan Gattis (strep throat) will be out of the lineup until he gets better while the Nationals are hoping to get back 3B Ryan Zimmerman (hamstring) sometime later this month.

Ervin Santana was a steal for the Braves this year, as he has posted his highest wins total (14) since 2010 and has his best strikeout rate (8.2 K.9) since 2008. He also has seen his HR rate drop below 1.0 HR/9 for the first time since that '08 season, as he has allowed 14 long balls in 174.1 frames (0.72 HR/9). Santana has done all of this as hitters are batting a solid .316 BABIP against him, showing that he is actually pitching even better than his numbers may suggest. Over his past 10 starts, Santana has been able to earn seven wins (team is 8-2) by throwing at least six innings in nine of those outings. In his six career starts against the Nationals, the righty is 1-1 (3-3 team record) with a 4.15 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and has allowed seven runs on 10 hits over two starts (12 IP) when facing them this season. OF Denard Span has owned Santana in his career, going 12-for-30 (.400) with two doubles, a homer and 6 RBI while OF Bryce Harper (2-for-6) also has a homer against the veteran. On the other hand, infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Ian Desmond have combined to go a woeful 10-for-48 (.208) with two homers, 9 RBI and eight strikeouts in the head-to-head matchup. Atlanta’s bullpen is 20-21 (.488) with a 3.07 ERA (1.26 WHIP) this season and has converted 50-of-63 (79%) save opportunities. Closer Craig Kimbrel (1.61 ERA, 43 saves) has been phenomenal with 13.8 K/9 while allowing a single homer in his 56 innings of work (0.16 HR/9).

Jordan Zimmermann is putting together another tremendous campaign, reaching at least 10 wins in each of the past three years and an ERA of 3.25 or better for four consecutive seasons. He has raised his strikeout rate from 6.8 K/9 in 2013 to a very solid 8.2 K/9 this year and has also seen his home-run rate drop to a career-low 0.63 HR/9. The best part of Zimmermann’s game is his control, as he has allowed a miniscule 1.4 walks per nine innings; the sixth-best mark among qualified starters in the league. He has pitched at least six frames while allowing three or fewer runs in each of his past eight outings, and has a 24:3 K/BB ratio over his past three starts. In that time he is 4-0, while the Nationals have gone 7-1 behind his great performance. Zimmermann is 3-2 (4-5 team record) with a 2.92 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over nine career starts against the Braves while his team has lost his past three outings when facing them. He did not pitch poorly in those contests though, allowing only five runs on 18 hits over 16 innings. OF Jason Heyward has done well in this matchup over his career, going 5-for-18 (.357) with a double, homer and 3 RBI. Meanwhile, OF B.J. Upton has been horrendous against the 28-year-old with a meager two hits in 14 at-bats (.143) while striking out six times. The Nationals’ relievers have combined to go 26-15 (.634) with a 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and are 36-for-52 (69%) in save chances. Drew Storen (1.31 ERA, 3 saves) has looked to be the closer of choice with Rafael Soriano working on mechanics, and has not allowed a run in his past 11.2 frames while earning a save in two consecutive days.


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