StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 1 FSU meets Oklahoma State Saturday in Arlington
By:   - 
Published: 8/30/2014  at  4:52:00 AM
  Print This Article    

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (0-0)
vs. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (0-0)

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -17.5, Total: 63.5

No. 1-ranked, defending national champion Florida State looks to get its title defense off to a fast start as it takes on Oklahoma State on Saturday in Arlington, TX

Last season, the Cowboys dealt with a revolving door at the quarterback position as J.W. Walsh and Clint Chelf switched in the first few games of the season. The Cowboys once again had a decision to make at the position as Walsh found himself in a battle with Daxx Garman and hyped freshman Mason Rudolph. Walsh will get the start in this game, as the Cowboys will need experience going up against one of the best defenses in the country. If not for a stunning Week 4 loss to West Virginia, OSU could have found itself playing Oklahoma in the final week of the season for a berth in the national championship game. Oklahoma State (8-5 ATS, 7-5 Under) will look to get back to winning as the team fell to the Sooners, and then lost in the Cotton Bowl to Missouri. The team did play a neutral field, non-conference game last season, defeating Mississippi State 21-3 in Houston. However, the Cowboys are playing a completely different level of team in Florida State. The Seminoles (11-3 ATS, 10-4 Over) have a lot of pieces coming back from the title team. The last three games of the season, the Seminoles defense took its game to the next level, defeating teams by 23.6 PPG. Quarterback Jameis Winston (4,057 passing yards, 67 % completion pct, 40 TD, 10 INT) is back as the defending Heisman Trophy winner, and will be leading an offense that ranked No. 2 in FBS scoring last season with 51.6 PPG. The Seminoles enter this game as a 17.5-point favorite, and have covered the spread the past six games when the spread as been at least 17.5 points. However, Mike Gundy is 35-17 ATS (67%) when the total is at least 63 since becoming the OSU head coach.

For the Cowboys, this is a very difficult game to start the year, but this could be a huge jump-start to the season. Walsh (1,333 passing yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) attempted only three passes in the past seven games, but showed early in the season the potential to be a good quarterback. In the opener against Mississippi State, he threw for 135 yards, while also rushing for 125 yards and two touchdowns. He is a very good athlete that can make some plays on the perimeter, but at times gets careless with the ball. When he is on though, he can be great, as evidenced by a game against UTSA early last season (24-of-27, 326 yards, 5 total TD). He will have some help in the backfield with star RB Desmond Roland (811 rushing yards, 4.6 YPC 16 total TD). Like Walsh, he was a little inconsistent at times, as he gained 459 of those 811 rushing yards in three games. He rushed for less than 50 yards seven different times last year, but some of that was because he was splitting carries. He ended the season on a positive note, averaging 105 yards in the final two games. Roland is a big, bruising back that can wear his opponents out, and he will be used heavily for a team that loses a lot of playmakers on the outside. The top two receivers from last year’s team graduated, Tracy Moore and Josh Stewart, leaving sophomore Jhajuan Sales (39 catches, 571 yards, 3 TD) as the go-to guy. The Cowboys have had some talented receivers the past few years in Dez Bryant and Justin Blackmon, and Sales has the potential to be that type of receiver. All-American CB Justin Gilbert is off to the NFL, and that leaves the Cowboys rather green in the secondary. The defensive line has a lot of experience with players like James Castleman and Jimmy Bean back on a unit that showed the ability to get after the quarterback with 33 sacks. Ryan Simmons (67 tackles, 9 TFL) is the starter at middle linebacker after playing on the outside all last season. He will play a huge role in this game in getting his defensive mates in position to stop Winston.

Winston was everything Florida State fans could have wished for last year, guiding the team to a national championship and winning the Heisman Trophy. However, it was not a one-man show on offense, as many of the skill players from that unit are gone. Guys like Devonta Freeman, James Wilder Jr. and Kelvin Benjamin are currently in the NFL, but there are still plenty of weapons at Winston’s disposal. Senior RB Karlos Williams (91 carries, 730 yards, 8.0 YPC, 11 TD) will have the chance to be the go-to running back this year, and has the potential to flirt with a 1,500-yard season. Senior WR Rashad Greene (76 catches, 1,128 yards and 9 TD) emerged as one of the best receivers in the country, and will become the undeniable No. 1 option on this team. While the offense got all the headlines, the defense was equally as impressive, ranking No. 1 in the country in points allowed (12.1 PPG). There is talent all over the field on this unit, with the secondary being arguably the best in the country. CB Ronald Darby (11 tackles, 2 INT) missed nearly half the season, but has a chance to be a star this year in the secondary. Jalen Ramsey (46 tackles, 1 INT) has a chance to become the next standout safety for the Seminoles. A guy on the defensive line to look at is Mario Edwards Jr. (25 tackles, 3.5 sacks). Like Darby, he missed a lot of time, but is an uber-talented athlete that has the potential to become a household name. Jimbo Fisher’s rise to the top was even faster than expected, as many experts thought this would be the year Florida State became a national title contender. They have all of the pieces to make a run again this season, but could face a tougher than expected matchup on Saturday.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: