StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

NFL Season Preview: NFC West
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 8/28/2014  at  12:00:00 PM
  Print This Article    

To get you prepared for the upcoming NFL season, we conclude our run of all 32 team previews, rolling out two divisions per week throughout August. For complete coverage, download your copy of the 2014 StatFox Edge Football Preview. The final division is the NFC West, with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks picked as the heavy favorite to win the division.

ARIZONA CARDINALS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 10-6
ATS Record: 10-5-1
Over/Under: 8-8
Points Scored: 23.7 PPG (T-16th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 20.3 PPG (7th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC West: 9/1
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 32/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 62/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 7.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
Despite their Pittsburgh Steelers background, both head coach Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin have installed more of a finesse running game in Arizona, featuring more zone-blocking than classic power. It fits the skill set of undersized feature back Andre Ellington, who will get as much work as he can handle this year. They’ll use him on a lot of stretch plays on the perimeter. Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer will battle for the No. 2 job. Both can provide more of an inside, physical presence. The Cards were very run-heavy near the end zone last year, and those touches are up for grabs with Rashard Mendenhall retiring.

Arians installed more of an aggressive, downfield passing game. Larry Fitzgerald is still the centerpiece, moving around formations and often running more possession-type routes. Michael Floyd works downfield and started to see more targets as opposing defenses focused on Fitzgerald. Field stretcher Ted Ginn will rotate in as a No. 3 receiver, likely pushing Fitzgerald to the slot when he’s on the field. Ellington will be used frequently in the screen game in an attempt to get him out in space. They’ll use two tight ends more frequently this year, especially after the addition of second-round pick Troy Niklas. Fitzgerald remains a heavy favorite when they throw in the red zone.

Defense:
Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles was a magician with the Cards in 2013, putting his team among the top-7 NFL defenses in points, yards and turnovers. The addition of shutdown cornerback Antonio Cromartie adds to a talented group that includesDE Calais Campbell and CB Patrick Peterson, but the losses of LBs Karlos Dansby to free agency and Daryl Washington to suspension could end up hurting this unit significantly.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
RB Jonathan Dwyer (Steelers)
TE John Carlson (Vikings)
WR/KR Ted Ginn Jr. (Panthers)
C Ted Larsen (Buccaneers)
OT Jared Veldheer (Raiders)
OT Max Starks (DNP in 2013)
NT Isaac Sopoaga (Patriots)
LB Desmond Bishop (Vikings)
ILB Larry Foote (Steelers)
CB Antonio Cromartie (Jets)

SUBTRACTIONS
RB Rashard Mendenhall (retired)
RB Ryan Williams (Cowboys)
RB Alfonso Smith (49ers)
WR Andre Roberts (Redskins)
TE Jim Dray (Browns)
TE Jake Ballard (retired)
OT Eric Winston (Seahawks)
G Daryn Colledge (Dolphins)
ILB Karlos Dansby (Browns)
ILB Jasper Brinkley (Vikings)
CB Antoine Cason (Panthers)
CB Javier Arenas (Falcons)
SS Yeremiah Bell (retired)

StatFox Take: This is a team on the rise, winning seven of its final nine games in 2013, which included a 29-point win over the Colts and 17-10 upset in Seattle. The schedule isn’t easy (8th-hardest in NFL), including visits to Denver and Atlanta, but Arizona is too talented to finish below .500.
Prediction: OVER 7.5 wins (-120)

ST. LOUIS RAMS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-9
ATS Record: 7-9
Over/Under: 9-7
Points Scored: 21.8 PPG (21st in NFL)
Points Allowed: 22.8 PPG (13th in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC West: 18/1
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 48/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 95/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 6.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
The Rams’ running game found their footing in the second half of last year. They use a variety of looks behind a scheme that is heavy in zone blocking, utilizing a fullback and two tight ends, and running out of shotgun sets. Zac Stacy will be the workhorse. He thrived running in space behind the creative blocking schemes, especially on the perimeter. Rookie Tre Mason figures to take a decent workload behind him, as the Rams look to keep both their undersized runners healthy and fresh. The 224-pound Stacy will once again likely take on a monster red-zone workload, as the Rams tend to go very ground-heavy near the goal line.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s playbook is full of short drops, play-action and catch-and-run situations. Tight end Jared Cook emerged as the No. 1 target by default, as the Rams effectively move him around to find mismatches. They’re hoping Titans cast-off Kenny Britt can take over at split end and provide a true No. 1 receiver. Tavon Austin figures to have a more consistent role this year, and they’ll use him throughout formations. Chris Givens will be a deep threat again, and expect more screen-game work for Stacy, as Mason isn’t ready to play on passing downs. When they throw inside the 20, quarterback Shaun Hill -- the backup to injured Sam Bradford (torn ACL) -- will usually look for one of his tight ends: Cook or Lance Kendricks. Britt might also work his way into the red-zone mix.

Defense:
This team has an NFL-high 105 sacks since 2012 and new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will make sure that doesn’t change with basically the same personnel plus some rookies. The Rams recovered 11 more fumbles last season than in 2012, and scored five defensive touchdowns for the second straight year.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Shaun Hill (Lions)
WR Kenny Britt (Titans)
G Davin Joseph (Buccaneers)
DT Alex Carrington (Bills)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Kellen Clemens (Chargers)
QB Brady Quinn (Dolphins)
RB Daryl Richardson (Jets)
TE Mike McNeill (Panthers)
G Chris Williams (Bills)
G Shelley Smith (Dolphins)
G Harvey Dahl (released)
CB Cortland Finnegan (Dolphins)
SS Darian Stewart (Ravens)

StatFox Take: t. Louis has the most difficult schedule of any NFC club with half of its games coming against 2013 playoff teams. Not having injured QB Sam Bradford again will really set this team back, as there are not enough offensive weapons to help the Rams succeed in a defensive-minded NFC West.
Prediction: UNDER 6.5 wins (-150)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 12-4
ATS Record: 11-5
Over/Under: 8-8
Points Scored: 25.4 PPG (11th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 17.0 PPG (3rd in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC West: 11/5
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 6/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 12/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 10.5

2014 Preview:
Offense:
The Niners remained the most run-heavy offense in the NFL, even in Colin Kaepernick’s first full season as a starter. They run a classic power-blocking scheme with a leading fullback, but they also mix in some zone-read stuff to take advantage of Kaepernick’s mobility. Veteran Frank Gore is still the lead back, though he might see his workload reduced during the regular season. Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore and rookie Carlos Hyde will battle for playing time behind him. The Niners are just as run-heavy in the red zone, with Gore taking on a huge workload. They got away from using Kaepernick as a runner down near the goal line, as he had only two rushing attempts inside the 10-yard-line last season.

The passing game works off the rushing attack and features plenty of movement for Kaepernick. The 49ers are very aggressive down- field, using Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin facing the line of scrimmage or tight end Vernon Davis exploiting slower defenders down the seam. They figure to run more three-receiver sets this year with Stevie Johnson working out of the slot. The don’t use their backs often in the passing game, and fullback Bruce Miller actually led their running backs in both targets and catches last season. When they do throw in the red zone, Davis is the clear-cut No. 1 target. Crabtree, however, could be in for a bigger red-zone role.

Defense:
The Niners still have a great defense, but there are some con- cerns. Star ILB NaVorro Bowman (knee) will miss half the year, OLB Aldon Smith could get a six-game suspension, and they have to figure out their cornerback situation. But two hungry veteran leaders remain with inside linebacker Patrick Willis and defensive end Justin Smith.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Blaine Gabbert (Jaguars)
QB Josh Johnson (Bengals)
RB Alfonso Smith (Cardinals)
WR Stevie Johnson (Bills)
WR Brandon Lloyd (DNP in 2013)
OT Jonathan Martin (Dolphins)
LB Blake Costanzo (Bears)
CB Chris Cook (from Vikings)
SS Antoine Bethea (Colts)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Colt McCoy (Redskins)
RB Anthony Dixon (Bills)
RB Kendall Hunter (released)
WR Mario Manningham (Giants)
WR Jonathan Baldwin (Lions)
C Jonathan Goodwin (Saints)
CB Carlos Rogers (Raiders)
CB Tarell Brown (Raiders)
CB Eric Wright (retired)
SS Donte Whitner (Browns)

StatFox Take: Even with the aforementioned absences on defense, this team has all the ingredients to win the Super Bowl. The schedule won’t be easy, especially trips to Denver, New Orleans and Seattle, but the Niners could go undefeated at home, and should wind up with at least a dozen wins.
Prediction: OVER 10.5 wins (+125)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the 49ers:

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


2013 Statistics:
SU Record: 13-3
ATS Record: 11-5
Over/Under: 6-10
Points Scored: 26.1 PPG (T-8th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 14.4 PPG (1st in NFL)

2014 Odds:
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Odds to Win NFC West: 2/3
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 16/5
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIX: 6/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 11

2014 Preview:
Offense:
Under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have churned out yards behind a zone-blocking scheme, first overseen by Alex Gibbs and now by Tom Cable. They use a lot of inside zone plays to free up Marshawn Lynch for yardage between the tackles. Lynch took a huge workload last year, and could give way to Christine Michael and Robert Turbin a bit more often this season. Seattle also gets a lot of rushing yards out of quarterback Russell Wilson, who takes the option to run on a lot of designed rollouts. The red zone is typically all Lynch all the time, as he had nearly two-thirds of their red zone touches. That won’t change this year.

Seattle utilizes Wilson’s mobility by moving the pocket around a lot—Wilson also moves when it isn’t by design due to his lack of size and Seattle’s shaky pass protection. They’ll move Percy Harvin around and feature him in catch-and-run situations as the likely focal point of the passing game. The other receivers, some mix of Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and rookie Paul Richardson, will work downfield. They’ll use Zach Miller as a check- down option, while Lynch is occasionally used in the screen game. When they throw in the red zone, Miller was most often their top weapon in the end zone.

Defense:
Seattle led the NFL in scoring defense, total defense, red-zone defense and interceptions in 2013. The “Legion of Boom” may miss cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond, but All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman and free safety Earl Thomas still remain. The front seven is still stacked with defensive ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who combined for 16.5 sacks for the Seahawks last season.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Terrelle Pryor (Raiders)
TE Travis Beckum (DNP in 2013)
OT Eric Winston (Cardinals)
G/OT Steve Schilling (Chargers)
G Wade Smith (Texans)
DT Kevin Williams (Vikings)
CB Terrell Thomas (Giants)
CB Phillip Adams (Raiders)
CB A.J. Jefferson (Vikings)

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Golden Tate (Lions)
WR Sidney Rice (retired)
TE Kellen Davis (Giants)
OT Michael Bowie (Browns)
OT Breno Giacomini (Jets)
G/OT Paul McQuistan (Browns)
DE Chris Clemons (Jaguars)
DE Red Bryant (Jaguars)
DT Clinton McDonald (Buccaneers)
CB Brandon Browner (Patriots)
CB Walter Thurmond (Giants)
FS Chris Maragos (Eagles)

StatFox Take: Don’t be scared off by a Super Bowl hangover and wrongly think this team will struggle to make the postseason. The Seahawks do have a challenging road schedule (San Diego, Carolina, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia), but with how well they perform at home, a dozen wins are likely.
Prediction: OVER 11 wins (-120)

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook 2014 season preview for the Seahawks:

All NFL Previews

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West

FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: