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Grizzlies seek crucial win Wednesday vs. Heat
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/9/2014  at  5:27:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (53-24)

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (45-32)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -4, Total: 183

The Grizzlies look to pick up a much-needed win over the Heat on Wednesday night in order to stay in the race for the West’s eight seed.

Miami hosted the 7.5-point underdog Nets on Tuesday night and lost outright 88-87. The team really missed injured SG Dwyane Wade, who hasn't played in nine of the past 10 games due to an injured hamstring. The Heat have now lost two of their past three games and sit just one-half game ahead of Indiana for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Grizzlies are fighting for their playoff lives and just got crushed 112-92 in their last game on Sunday in San Antonio, giving them four SU losses in their past six games (0-6 ATS). Miami is a solid 22-16 SU (19-18-1 ATS) on the road this season, while Memphis is 24-14 SU at home, but only 16-22 ATS. Over the past three seasons, these teams have split four meetings with the Grizzlies, holding a 3-1 ATS edge in the four contests. The Heat won this season's matchup though on March 21, prevailing 91-86 as 4.5-point home favorites. Over the past three seasons, Miami is 15-5 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. They’re also up against a Memphis team that is 2-16 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. But the Grizzlies are also 28-16 ATS (64%) after playing a game as a road underdog over the past two seasons. Twenty-two of the 32 games played (69%) in this series since 1996 have gone Under the total. In addition to Wade being doubtful for this matchup, the Heat will also likely be without C Greg Oden (back), while PF Udonis Haslem is questionable with an illness. Grizzlies SF Tayshaun Prince (ankle) is also considered questionable to play on Wednesday.

Which team will help out its playoff chances on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. StatFox Zach is a strong 62% ATS (13-8) since March 9, while StatFox Gary has remained hot with a 57% ATS mark (20-15) since Feb. 13. StatFox Dave has a profitable 56% ATS (50-40-2) Best Bets record since Dec. 1.

The Heat lost to the Nets on Tuesday night without SG Dwyane Wade (19.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 4.6 RPG) for the seventh straight game. Wade is doubtful Wednesday, and if he doesn’t play then SF LeBron James (26.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.5 APG) will need to carry more of the offensive load. James had 29 points (9-of-16 FG), 10 rebounds and six assists in 37 minutes against the Nets, but it was not enough to get his team over the hump. In the only game James played against the Grizzlies this season, he finished with 15 points, seven assists and six rebounds. One player who had success against the Grizzlies in the last meeting was SG Ray Allen (9.7 PPG). Allen played 31 minutes in that win last month, and finished with 18 points (7-of-14 FG), four rebounds and four assists. If Wade is in fact unable to go against the Grizzlies, Allen will have an even bigger opportunity to shine. PG Mario Chalmers (9.8 PPG, 5.0 APG) will need to be on his game defensively in order to keep Mike Conley in check.

The Grizzlies are running out of time to take control of the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Coming off of a blowout loss to the Spurs, Memphis will need to treat every one of its remaining games as if it is Game 7 of the NBA Finals. PF Zach Randolph (17.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG) had just eight points and six rebounds in the loss to San Antonio, and he will need to get back on track for Memphis. Randolph should be able to do just that, as the last time the Grizzlies played the Heat, he finished with 25 points (12-of-20 FG), 14 rebounds and four assists. C Marc Gasol (14.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG) had 14 points and six rebounds the last time the Grizzlies played Miami. He was also troubled by the Spurs defense, finishing with just six points and six rebounds. The Grizzlies will really need a big game out of PG Mike Conley (17.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG). Conley was one of the only players on the team who came out and performed at a high level against San Antonio (18 points, 6 assists), and the Grizzlies will rely on his ability to penetrate in order to defeat Miami.


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