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UFC Fight Night: Noguiera vs. Nelson
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Published: 4/11/2014  at  3:41:00 AM
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UFC Fight Night: Noguiera vs. Nelson

Friday, April 11 – 5:00 p.m. ET
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Minotauro Nogueira (34-8-1) vs. Roy Nelson (20-9)

5-Round Heavyweight bout
Line: Nelson -160, Nogueira +130

Two contrasting styles will clash when Minotauro Nogueira and Roy Nelson battle at UFC Fight Night on Friday in Abu Dhabi.

Nogueira is looking to bounce back from a loss against Fabricio Werdum on June 8, 2013 at UFC on Fuel 10. In that match, Werdum was able to get an arm-bar locked in the second round to get the victory. Nogueira has not been himself in his past seven matches, posting a record of only 3-4 during that timeframe. However, when you look at his overall resume, he has proven throughout his career that he can compete with the best of the best with wins against six former UFC champions: Randy Couture, Ricco Rodriguez, Tim Sylvia, Josh Barnett, Mark Coleman and Dan Henderson. While he is terrific with his ground game, Nogueira has been knocked out in the first round in two of his past five fights. That doesn't bode well against a knockout artist like Nelson. The fan favorite is coming off two consecutive losses to Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic, with both of those matches ending by way of unanimous decision. The knock on "Big Country" Nelson's entire career has been an inability to go the distance because of his lack of cardio. However, one thing he does possess is the ability to knock his opponent at any moment. He is extremely powerful, and is looking to end the match in knockout fashion, as he has done in all of his career UFC wins. Earlier in Nogueira’s career, he would have been able to withstand the power of Nelson. However, this is a bad matchup for him, and NELSON will get a big victory as he tries to move back into the rankings.

Of his 20 career victories, Nelson has won by knockout 13 times, while winning by submission four times and decision three times. There is no secret that he wants to end the match with his powerful fists, but he must be careful that he doesn’t just start swinging for the fences early because that could put him in a bad situation. He attempts 5.1 strikes per minute, compared to just 2.2 by Nogueira. However, he does not have a huge advantage when it comes to landing strikes (2.1 for Nelson, compared to just 1.9 strikes by Nogueira). The 37-year-old hails from Las Vegas, so he will have the crowd in his favor. But Nelson must keep this match on his feet, where he can use his 23-pound advantage (263 to 240) to deliver the devastating punches. If this fight goes to the ground, Nelson will be in trouble.

The 37-year-old Nogueira has an impressive 34 victories in his career, with 21 of them coming by way of submission. He also has 10 by decision and only three by knockout. He is the complete opposite of Nelson, which will set up an exciting matchup where both fighters understand they have to control the style of the fight. While he showed he can end a match with a knockout punch against Brendan Schaub at UFC 134 in 2011, he will need to bring the fight to the mat where he has the ability to wear Nelson out. The Brazilian-born Nogueira has a takedown average of 1.33, compared to only 0.51 for Big Country. Nelson does a much better job of defending against the takedown (58%) compared to his opponent (36%), but he has not faced anyone with the takedown ability of Nogueira, whose takedown accuracy is 33% (Nelson is 18%). If this match goes to the ground, the 6-foot-3 Nogueira, who stands three inches taller than Nelson, will be in great shape to get the win.


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