GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (46-28)
at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (58-16)
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -9.5, Total: 203
After a thrilling overtime win on Tuesday in Dallas, the Warriors hope to carry that momentum on Wednesday into a place they rarely win, AT&T Center, when they visit the sizzling Spurs, who are riding an 18-game SU win streak.
Golden State has not won a regular-season game in San Antonio since Feb. 14, 1997, dropping 30 straight contests. Snapping that skid won't be easy against a Spurs team riding a franchise record 18-game surge (14-4 ATS) where they have won by an unbelievable average margin of 16.5 PPG, outscoring opponents 111.2 PPG to 94.7 PPG. The Warriors have been a bit inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in each of the past five games, but they are still 10-4 SU (7-7 ATS) over their past 14 contests. They also enter this game with sky-high confidence after winning 122-120 in Dallas on Tuesday night thanks to a Stephen Curry step-back jumper in the final second of OT. That improves the team to an even 36-36-2 ATS mark this season, including 20-17 ATS on the road. Golden State is also 6-5-1 ATS in the underdog role this season, but only 5-7 ATS when playing on zero days' rest. But the Warriors will likely be short-handed in the paint on Wednesday as C Andrew Bogut (pelvis) is out, and star PF David Lee (hamstring) is doubtful. San Antonio has a 3.5-game lead on Oklahoma City for the league's best record, so it's not clear if the team will choose to limit minutes for some of its stars to be ready for Thursday's showdown with the Thunder. The Spurs are 41-33 ATS overall this season, including 23-20 ATS with exactly one day's rest. But they are a subpar 17-20 ATS at home and an even 20-20 ATS following an ATS win like they had on Monday when they rolled to a 103-77 victory at Indiana, outshooting the Pacers 46.3% FG to 37.7% FG. San Antonio is going for the season series sweep of the Warriors in this contest, but the three wins haven't been easy, coming by 2, 2, and 9 points. When the clubs last met on March 22, both offenses struggled, shooting a combined 39.8% FG (30.2% threes). Both teams have positive betting trends though, as Golden State is 11-3 ATS (79%) when revenging an SU loss versus an opponent as a favorite this season, while San Antonio is 29-14 ATS (67%) versus poor foul-drawing teams (attempting 24 or less FT per game) this season.
Can the Spurs extend their win streak with a double-digit win on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. StatFox Zach is a stellar 75% ATS (12-4) since March 9, while StatFox Gary is heating up with a 58% ATS mark (18-13) since Feb. 13. StatFox Dave has a strong 55% ATS (48-39-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1, while StatFox Brian also remains profitable, going 54% ATS (26-22-1) since Jan. 25.
Golden State's offense has been a roller coaster lately, scoring 115, 90, 100, 84 and 122 points in its past five games, giving the team 103.4 PPG (10th in NBA) on 46.0% FG (also 10th in league) and 37.6% threes (5th in NBA) this season. But while the team has dished out 23.1 APG (9th in league), it has also coughed up 15.0 turnovers per game (25th in NBA). Defensively, the Warriors are very strong, allowing only 99.0 PPG (8th in league) on 43.6% FG (4th in NBA) and 34.8% threes (6th in league), while holding four of their past six opponents below 100 points. Despite missing its two best rebounders on Tuesday -- PF David Lee (18.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG) and C Andrew Bogut (7.6 PPG, 10.1 RPG) -- Golden State still outrebounded Dallas 44-43, as six different players pulled down at least four boards. The offense was incredibly efficient as well with 33 assists on 52 made field goals, leading to shooting percentages of 57.1% FG and 48.4% threes (15-of-31). PG Stephen Curry (23.7 PPG, 42% threes, 8.4 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG) was the hero with the game-winning bucket as part of 23 points, giving him 20+ points in eight straight games, tallying 28.3 PPG on 53.2% FG (49.2% threes) with 6.8 APG and 4.0 RPG during this streak. Curry has also posted monster numbers in two meetings with the Spurs this season, scoring 25.0 PPG (35% threes) with 10.5 APG, 4.0 RPG and 2.5 SPG. But in these two games, he's made just 41.5% FG and turned the ball over 11 times. His backcourt mate SG Klay Thompson (18.2 PPG, 41% threes, 3.1 RPG) has also been on a scoring binge recently with 21.0 PPG on 48% FG (44.4% threes) and 3.7 RPG over the past 10 contests. But he has had trouble getting open looks versus San Antonio this season, scoring just 13.3 PPG on 36% FG (3-of-15 threes) with 11 turnovers and just seven assists. With Lee and Bogut out, Golden State will continue to lean on veteran C Jermaine O'Neal (7.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG), who poured in 20 points (9-of-12 FG) with eight boards in Tuesday's win. SF Andre Iguodala (9.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) continues to fill up the stat sheet across the board, which is just what he did on Tuesday with 16 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. He may look for his offense more on Wednesday, having just 7.5 PPG, but making 7-of-11 FG, in two meetings with the Spurs this season. SG Jordan Crawford (7.5 PPG) was also huge on Tuesday with 19 points in just 16 minutes off the bench, draining 7-of-10 shots, including 5-of-7 threes.
San Antonio has the best record in the NBA for many reasons. The club scores 105.6 PPG (6th in league) on 48.9% FG (2nd in NBA) with a league-best 40.2% threes and 78.4% FT (4th in NBA). The Spurs also lead the league in assists (25.4 APG) and rank 8th in turnover differential (+0.9). Defensively they are also top-notch, holding opponents to 97.1 PPG (4th in league) on 44.2% FG (7th in NBA) and 35.4% threes (9th in league). And although its rebounding margin of +1.3 RPG is less than Golden State's +2.2 RPG margin, San Antonio could have the edge in this area too with the Warriors' current frontcourt injuries. PF Tim Duncan (15.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG) continues to provide steady production every night, averaging 17.8 PPG (58% FG), 8.0 RPG and 2.2 BPG over his past five contests. He has usually dominated the Warriors in his career with 20.6 PPG (52% FG), 11.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 2.4 BPG in 54 career meetings, but managed just eight points (3-of-11 FG), four boards and five assists in his one game against them this season. PG Tony Parker (17.1 PPG, 5.9 APG) has been slowed by an Achilles injury over the past week, but he sure looked healthy in Monday's win with 22 points on 10-of-18 FG against the Pacers, the league's No. 1 defense. Parker has feasted on the Warriors throughout his great career, lighting them up for 19.0 PPG on 51% FG with 6.8 APG and 3.2 RPG. He's also averaged 19.0 PPG against them this season, making 50% FG with 4.5 APG. SF Kawhi Leonard (12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has also been very productive with 14.8 PPG (45% threes) and 6.9 RPG over his past eight contests. This includes a double-double of 13 points and 11 boards against Indiana's massive frontcourt on Monday. Leonard has also given Golden State a lot of trouble this season with 16.7 PPG on 53% FG (4-of-7 threes), 8.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG in the series so far.