StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Wisconsin looks to slow down red-hot Baylor on Thursday
By:   - 
Published: 3/27/2014  at  3:23:00 AM
  Print This Article    

BAYLOR BEARS (26-11)

vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (28-7)

NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -3, Total: 136.5

Two teams that experienced tough times during the regular season look to earn an Elite Eight berth as Baylor collides with Wisconsin in a Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday night in Anaheim.

Here is the Bet DSI breakdown on the entire Sweet 16:

Baylor was in big trouble after starting 2-8 in the Big 12, but has played terrific basketball as of late, going 8-1 in its final nine regular season games to help get to the tournament. The Bears have been dominating in their first two games in the NCAAs, defeating their opponents by an average of 22.0 PPG. In the Round of 32, Baylor ended the career of Doug McDermott by destroying Creighton 85-55 with a 63% FG clip, including 11-of-18 from three-point range. The Bears are now 16-14-1 ATS overall this season, including 5-4 ATS in non-conference games and 6-4 ATS on a neutral court. Like Baylor, Wisconsin hit a rough patch during the season, losing five of six games early in the Big Ten season. However, Bo Ryan’s team has been clicking as of late, winning 11 of its past 13 games. In their last victory, the Badgers had to come back from a 12-point halftime deficit against Oregon to earn the 85-77 victory. All five starters scored at least a dozen points, with C Frank Kaminsky leading the way with 19. The win made Wisconsin 17-16-2 ATS overall this season, including an excellent 9-4-2 ATS mark in non-conference play and a 5-1-1 ATS record on a neutral court. Although the Bears are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS after having won two of their previous three games this season, the Badgers are 13-3 ATS in non-home games versus good long-range shooting teams (37%+ threes) over the past three seasons. It will take another huge team effort to defeat a Baylor club that is rolling right now.

Which school will move on to the Elite Eight? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts opened the NCAA Tournament with a sizzling 62% ATS mark (46-28-1) through the Round of 32, making them a stellar 60% ATS (322-218-17) in college basketball Best Bets this season. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 33-9-2 (79% ATS) since Feb. 6 and 42-12-3 (78% ATS) since Jan. 17, to give him a robust 69% ATS (74-33-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is a phenomenal 80% ATS (12-3) in Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament, making him 66% ATS (51-26-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 18 and 62% ATS (68-41-2) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 64% ATS (9-5-1) in Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament, 66% ATS (23-12-3) since Feb. 16 and 59% ATS (63-44-5) for the season. StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (58-40) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 56% ATS (62-48-2) for the season.

Baylor comes into this game ranked 24th in the nation in rebounding (38.7 RPG), 46th in assists (15.0 APG), 68th in scoring (75.2 PPG) and 104th in shooting (45.5% FG). Defensively this club limits opponents to 67.8 PPG due in large part to its great size in the paint that blocks 5.6 shots per game (20th in Div. I). PF Cory Jefferson (13.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) is the guy that gets this team rolling. He is a big-time athlete that has the versatility to step out and hit the outside jumper. He has tremendous length that makes it very difficult for the guy he is guarding to shoot over him. He teams up with C Isaiah Austin (11.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) for an incredibly athletic frontcourt. While Austin’s points and rebounds are down from his freshman campaign, he has become a much more complete player that is dominating on the defensive end with 3.2 BPG. With Jefferson and Austin in the frontcourt, it allows guys like PG Kenny Chery (11.5 PPG, 4.8 APG, 2.5 RPG) to really gamble more on the defensive end and get out in the transition. While SG Brady Heslip (11.9 PPG, 47% threes) does not bring a lot to the team when it comes to statistics, very few players in the country execute their job as well as Heslip. He is one of the elite shooters in the country, and forces defenses to avoid double-teaming on the post players. When Heslip is hitting from outside like he did in Sunday's win (5-of-7 threes), the Bears become a team capable of a Final Four run. Look for Bo Ryan to really focus on shutting Heslip down, but the Badgers are going to have to figure a way out to score in bunches against the Bears.

One thing Wisconsin has to do in this game is rebound, something it has struggled to do all season. The Badgers come into this game ranked 261st in the nation on the glass (33.2 RPG), and if they can't keep the rebounding margin close, it could be a long night. They also have to defend for 40 minutes, something they have done a nice job with, considering their mere 64.1 PPG allowed (41st in Div. I). Wisconsin comes into the game averaging 73.5 PPG (92nd in nation) on 45.8% FG (93rd in Div. I) during the season, but has averaged 80.0 PPG in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. In the comeback victory against Oregon, the Badgers connected on 11-of-28 threes (39%), and with the Bears looking to run a lot of 2-3 zone, Wisconsin may have to connect on some early threes to force the Bears to switch up their defenses. SF Sam Dekker (12.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is a very difficult player to guard because he has tremendous size and versatility at the small forward position. At 6-foot-8, he is too big for opposing guards to defend him, but too athletic for forwards to guard him. He is a terrific player that teams up with C Frank Kaminsky (13.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG) to comprise a versatile frontcourt. Both of these guys can step out and hit the 3-point shot, something that may force the Bears to have to make adjustments. The Badgers are shooting 37.6% from the three-point line this season, and will rely on the shooting of SGs Josh Gasser (9.2 PPG, 46% threes, 3.8 RPG) and SG Ben Brust (13.0 PPG, 39% threes, 4.5 RPG) to help shoot the Bears out of the zone. But the team's most important player is PG Traevon Jackson (10.8 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.7 RPG), who is having a terrific NCAA Tournament so far with 17.0 PPG (56% FG, 3-of-6 threes), 6.0 RPG and 4.0 APG.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: