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Pacers, Bulls wrap up season series on Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/24/2014  at  5:31:00 AM
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INDIANA PACERS (51-19)

at CHICAGO BULLS (39-31)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -1.5, Total: 179

The Bulls look to make things even with the Pacers when the two meet at United Center on Monday night.

These clubs squared off just three days ago on Friday with Indiana limiting Chicago to 38% FG in an easy 91-79 victory. But the next night, the Pacers shot just 36.5% FG in an 82-71 loss in Memphis, marking the fifth straight game they have shot 43% FG or worse, averaging a pathetic 91.8 PPG on 39.9% FG during this stretch. These rates might not rise much on Monday, as the Bulls have limited their past six opponents to 89.5 PPG on 39.3% FG (28.3% threes). Chicago followed up that loss at Bankers Life Fieldhouse with a 10-point win over the lowly Sixers, but failed to cover the 16-point spread, giving the club five straight ATS defeats. Indiana is looking to win the season series on Monday, having gone 2-1 (SU and ATS), but over the past three seasons, these teams are both 5-5 ATS versus one another with the Pacers holding the 6-4 SU advantage. The Bulls have the slight 3-2 edge (SU and ATS) at home during this timeframe with four of those five games finishing Under the total. Indiana is just 15-19 ATS on the road this season, but is 29-12 ATS off a road loss over the past two seasons. Although Chicago is only 17-18 ATS at home this season, the club is a stellar 14-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss versus an opponent. On the injury front, the Pacers are expected to be without both PG C.J. Watson (hamstring) and C Andrew Bynum (knee), while the Bulls will be at full strength.

Can the Bulls get payback from Friday's defeat? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The experts have posted a profitable 53% ATS mark (28-25) since March 9. StatFox Dave has a strong 56% ATS (45-35-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1, while StatFox Brian remains hot, going 60% ATS (25-17-1) since Jan. 25 and 56% ATS (39-31-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Gary is also heating up with a 56% ATS mark (14-11) since Feb. 13, while StatFox Zach is on an 8-2 ATS run since March 9.

Indiana Indiana doesn't have a very efficient offense with 98.1 PPG (21st in NBA) on 45.2% FG (14th in league) and 35.0% threes (23rd in NBA). But this is arguably the best defensive team on the planet, leading the league in scoring defense (91.9 PPG) and shooting defense (41.7% FG), while placing third in defending the three-point shot (34.3% threes). The Pacers are also an elite rebounding club with a +4.2 RPG margin (2nd in NBA). SF Paul George (21.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.6 APG) has been ice-cold for the Pacers recently, averaging just 11.7 PPG on 9-of-40 FG (23%) over the past three contests. George has also shot horribly in three meetings with Chicago this season, netting just 14.3 PPG on 26% FG, but he has also pitched in 8.0 RPG and 5.0 APG. While George has struggled, Lance Stephenson (14.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 4.8 APG) has continued to be a force for the Pacers. Over the past four games, Stephenson is averaging 19.0 PPG (54% FG) and 6.3 RPG, but hasn't been nearly as effective versus Chicago this season with 14.0 PPG on 41% FG with just 3.0 RPG and 2.3 APG. C Roy Hibbert (11.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.4 BPG) will once again be a major key to his team's success in this matchup. He is going up against Joakim Noah, who has been one of the best centers in the league this season. Hibbert still managed 12 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks in the win over Chicago on Friday which raised his season averages in this series to 11.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 4.0 BPG. But Hibbert played horribly on Saturday, finishing with just four points and zero rebounds in 21 foul-plagued minutes.

Chicago is also a team that struggles on offense, but thrives on defense. The club has the lowest-scoring offense in the NBA at 93.2 PPG on a league-worst 42.9% FG, but it does a decent job of sharing the basketball (22.3 APG, 12th in NBA) to create easier shots. This is an excellent defensive team though, holding teams to 92.1 PPG (2nd in NBA) on 43.0% FG (also 2nd in league), while grabbing a strong 44.7 RPG (9th in NBA) with a hefty +3.3 RPG margin (4th in league). C Joakim Noah (12.4 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.5 BPG) has been outstanding for Chicago this season, but over the past month his game has been taken to a new level. The Bulls are 15-6 SU since Feb. 9 due in large part to Noah averaging 14.5 PPG (53% FG), 11.0 RPG, 6.9 APG and 2.0 BPG during this timeframe. In the loss to Indiana on Friday, Noah shot poorly (5-of-15 FG), but still had 12 points, 13 rebounds, six assists and four steals. He will need to set the tone for the Bulls offensively and prevent Hibbert from getting it going in the paint. SG Jimmy Butler (13.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.0 SPG) has scored 17 points in two straight contests, and his defense on Paul George has been crucial for Chicago this season. Butler will need to keep the slumping George in check once again on Monday night. PG D.J. Augustin (12.3 PPG, 4.4 APG) is coming off a 16-point, 6-assist game in Saturday's win over the 76ers, but he has really struggled with his shot versus Indiana in his career, averaging only 10.4 PPG on 31% FG. Augustin had 17 points (6-of-14 FG) in Friday's loss to the Pacers, but dished out only three assists in 30 minutes, so he must do a better job of distributing the ball. PF Taj Gibson (13.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) had just seven points (1-of-6 FG) before fouling out against the Pacers last game, but came back strong the next night with a double-double of 16 points and 10 rebounds versus Philadelphia. It is crucial that Gibson makes better decisions this time around, and the team also needs PF Carlos Boozer (13.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG) to snap out of his prolonged scoring slump. Boozer has not reached 20 points in 17 straight games, scoring a mere 10.9 PPG on 42% FG during this drought.


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