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Aldridge-less Blazers visit Wade-less Heat Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/24/2014  at  4:27:00 AM
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PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (45-25)

at MIAMI HEAT (47-21)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 208

The Trail Blazers head to South Beach on Monday night to take on a Heat team that is desperate to get back on the winning track heading into the playoffs.

Portland opened a five-game East Coast road trip on Saturday in Charlotte and was blown out 124-94, making the club 1-5 (2-4 ATS) on the road this month. Although the Blazers are averaging an impressive 110.6 PPG (45% FG) over the past five contests, the numbers aren't that impressive when considering they have surrendered 111.6 PPG on 47% FG during this timeframe. Miami is playing some of its worst basketball in the past three seasons, losing seven of the past 11 games (3-8 ATS) and averaging a mere 97.6 PPG on 47.7% FG during this stretch, a huge drop-off from its 104.7 PPG on 51.1% FG in the season's first 57 games. The club has scored a mere 94.0 PPG during three straight games of scoring less than 100 points. Both teams are concerned about the health of their superstar players for this game. Portland PF LaMarcus Aldridge (back) has been ruled out for this contest, and Miami SG Dwyane Wade (ankle) is also expected to sit this one out. But although Heat SF LeBron James is suffering back problems and also twisted his ankle in Saturday's embarrassing double-digit loss to the 29-40 Pelicans, he is expected to suit up on Monday. Miami won the first meeting between these teams on Dec. 28, eking out a 108-107 road victory where both teams were red-hot, combining to shoot 51% FG, 48% threes and 88% FT. Over the past three seasons, the Heat are 3-1 (SU and ATS) in this series, but the Blazers hold a commanding 10-5 edge (SU and ATS) in the past 15 meetings in Miami. Portland is also 16-6 ATS this season when revenging a loss in which its opponent scored at least 100 points. However, the Heat are 30-15 ATS (67%) after two consecutive non-conference games over the past three seasons.

Can the Heat get back on track with a convincing win on Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The experts have posted a profitable 53% ATS mark (28-25) since March 9. StatFox Dave has a strong 56% ATS (45-35-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1, while StatFox Brian remains hot, going 60% ATS (25-17-1) since Jan. 25 and 56% ATS (39-31-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Gary is also heating up with a 56% ATS mark (14-11) since Feb. 13, while StatFox Zach is on an 8-2 ATS run since March 9.

Portland continues to have an explosive offense, scoring 107.5 PPG (2nd in NBA) thanks in large part to 23.2 APG (8th in league). The Blazers also have a huge rebounding advantage in this contest, even without injured PF LaMarcus Aldridge (23.4 PPG, 11.1 RPG), as they lead the NBA in rebounding with 46.3 RPG, while Miami remains dead last at 36.5 RPG. Portland's defense is shaky though, allowing 103.5 PPG (25th in league) this season. PG Damian Lillard (21.2 PPG, 5.6 APG) led the team in scoring in Saturday's loss to Charlotte with 20 points, while also adding four assists. That gives him eight straight games of 20+ points, as the second-year pro is averaging 24.0 PPG and 5.5 APG during this eight-game surge. Without Aldridge, Lillard will look for his offense much more than he did in the home loss to Miami on Dec. 28 when he attempted just nine shots (5-of-9 FG, 4-of-7 threes) and finished with 16 points, seven assists and four turnovers. SF Nicolas Batum (13.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.2 APG) had just six points, with six rebounds and six assists, in Saturday's loss to Charlotte, but he did play very well in the last meeting with Miami with a well-rounded 11 points, nine assists, six rebounds and three blocks. His defense will be a deciding factor in this game, as he will likely be matched up with LeBron James for a majority of this contest. SG Wesley Matthews (16.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG) has been on a tear recently, averaging 23.0 PPG on 51% FG (10-of-21 threes) over the past three games. His shooting will be crucial in this one, as the Blazers will need every ounce of floor spacing they can get.

Despite Miami's recent losing woes, the club is still among the NBA's top-10 teams in scoring (103.6 PPG, 10th in NBA), defense (98.6 PPG allowed, 7th in league) and assists (23.1 APG, 9th in NBA). PF Chris Bosh (16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) voiced his displeasure about his team's recent play, but Bosh himself is a big part of that with a paltry 9.7 PPG on 33% FG (1-of-13 threes) in his past three contests. The Heat will need a lot more out of him, which he certainly gave when these teams met in December. Bosh pumped in 37 points (15-of-26 FG, 3-of-3 threes) with 10 boards and two steals in helping Miami earn that one-point road win at Portland. SF LeBron James (26.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.5 APG) tweaked his ankle against the Pelicans, but it didn’t stop him from finishing with 25 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in 42 minutes. James is averaging 26.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 6.3 APG over his past four games, and if there’s anybody who can get this Heat team back on track, it’s the reigning NBA MVP. James did not play in that win in Portland this season, but he has usually destroyed this opponent with career marks of 29.3 PPG (53% FG, 40% threes), 9.5 RPG, 7.6 APG and 2.2 SPG in 19 games versus the Blazers. With SG Dwyane Wade (19.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.6 RPG) sidelined, look for SG Ray Allen (9.7 PPG) and PG Mario Chalmers (9.5 PPG, 5.1 APG) to assume more of a scoring load. Allen has only 14.0 PPG on 42% FG and 26% threes (7-of-27) over his past four games, but Chalmers has shot very well over his past seven contests, tallying 11.3 PPG on 48% FG (45% threes) with 6.0 APG.


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