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Heat favored big over Irving-less Cavs Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/18/2014  at  5:33:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (45-19)

at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (26-41)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -9.5, Total: 196

The Cavaliers just lost their best player to injury, Kyrie Irving, which doesn't bode well with the Heat coming to town on Tuesday night.

Miami has struggled lately with just two wins in the past seven games (SU and ATS), but it closed out a four-game homestand with a 113-104 victory over the Rockets on Sunday. Miami has averaged 110.0 PPG over their past two contests after failing to hit triple-digits in their previous four games. Cleveland is coming off of a 102-80 blowout loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers, which not only ended a two-game win streak, but saw star PG Kyrie Irving suffer a biceps injury which could put him on the shelf for the rest of the season. The Heat and Cavs have met twice this season with Miami coming away with a 95-84 win-and-cover in Cleveland in the first meeting. Miami also won the most recent game 114-107 at home but failed to cover the 13-point spread in the contest. But since LeBron James joined the Heat, his team is 12-1 SU versus the Cavs, including nine straight victories (5-4 ATS). Six of the past nine games in this series have gone Under the total. Over the past three seasons, Miami is 30-14 ATS (68%) after two consecutive non-conference games. Cleveland, however, is 20-9 ATS (69%) when playing four or less games in 10 days over the past two seasons. In addition to Irving being out, the Cavs are also still missing rookie PF Anthony Bennett (knee).

Can the Heat win and cover the monster spread here? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been surging in NBA Best Bets recently with a 54% ATS record (67-58-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a strong 57% ATS (43-32-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 54% ATS (53-46-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 65% ATS (24-13-1) since Jan. 25 and 59% ATS (39-27-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Gary is also heating up with a 60% ATS mark (12-8) since Feb. 13.

Miami hit a rough stretch this month, but it hopes to have snapped out of it with Sunday's win over the Rockets. With the game close in the fourth quarter, SG Ray Allen (9.4 PPG) got hot and finished the game with a team-high 25 points (7-of-11 FG, 4-of-6 threes) and hit some huge threes late to put it away for the Heat. SF LeBron James (26.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.5 APG) played 43 minutes and finished with 24 points, five assists and five rebounds. In two victories over his former team this season, James is averaging 26.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 8.5 APG in 39.0 MPG, which is similar to the 26.3 PPG, 7.4 APG and 7.1 RPG he's averaged over a dozen career meetings. James will be going up against Luol Deng, who has defended him rather well in the past. SG Dwyane Wade (19.4 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.7 RPG) also played well in the win over Houston, finishing with 24 points himself. Wade is averaging 23.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG in two victories over the Cavaliers this season and will have a favorable matchup going up against Dion Waiters, who doesn’t play very hard on the defensive end. PG Mario Chalmers (9.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) could be an X-factor in this game as he will be going up against a Cavaliers team that will be without their star point guard.

Cleveland is coming off of a 22-point loss to the Clippers in which it also lost Kyrie Irving (21.2 PPG, 6.2 APG) to injury. The pressure is now on SF Luol Deng (16.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) to score more points. Over the past five games, Deng has done just that as he has averaged 17.2 PPG and 6.8 RPG. He also must be sound defensively in his matchup with LeBron James. SG Dion Waiters (14.5 PPG) is averaging 16.5 PPG over the past two games, and he is another player who must get himself going in the absence of Irving. Waiters is not shy about shooting the ball, but he must find a way to get himself some better looks and he’ll also have to find his teammates. PG Jarrett Jack (8.7 PPG, 3.9 APG) figures to be the guy who will step in and start at the point guard position. Jack had 12 points and five assists in the loss to Los Angeles, and he is averaging 11.0 PPG, 5.0 APG and 5.0 RPG in two losses to Miami this season. Jack should definitely see an increase to his 27.1 MPG on the season. In 20 career games versus the Heat, Jack has a solid 11.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 5.0 APG.


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