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Struggling Iowa favored big over Northwestern Thursday
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Published: 3/13/2014  at  4:26:00 AM
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NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (13-18)

vs. IOWA HAWKEYES (20-11)

Big Ten Conference Tournament - First Round
Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:55 p.m. ET
Line: Iowa -12.5, Total: 132

Slumping Iowa looks for its first non-home win in nearly a month when it opens Big Ten Tournament play Thursday against Northwestern.

The Hawkeyes enter the postseason having lost five of their past six games (0-6 ATS), with the lone victory coming by seven points at home over 15-point underdog Purdue. Iowa was giving points in four its past five losses, making the team an even 12-12 ATS as a favorite this season. Iowa is now 15-14 ATS overall, including 8-10 ATS in Big Ten play and 8-6 ATS in non-home games (1-2 on neutral courts). The Wildcats enter this tournament on the heels of a surprising 74-65 win at 9-point favorite Purdue on Sunday, but they had lost the previous seven games (1-6 ATS) due to an offense averaging a pathetic 51.7 PPG on 36.7% FG during that losing skid. Northwestern is now 11-19 ATS overall, including 7-11 ATS in the Big Ten and 6-8 ATS in non-home games (0-2 ATS on neutral courts). Iowa has absolutely dominated this series since the start of 2013, going 5-0 (SU and ATS) with the wins coming by 20, 14, 14, 26 and 26 points. In the two meetings this season, the Hawkeyes have scored 84.5 PPG on 54% FG (50% threes), while holding the Wildcats to a paltry 58.5 PPG on 38% FG (21% threes). Despite these numbers, Northwestern is a perfect 10-0 ATS on a neutral court where the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997. But the Wildcats are also a winless 0-9 ATS this season versus teams with a scoring margin of at least 12.0 PPG.

Can Iowa crush Northwestern for a sixth straight time and cover the monster point spread? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 60% ATS (264-180-16) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (232-146-10) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 20-2-2 (91% ATS) since Feb. 6, 29-5-3 (85% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 74% ATS (54-19-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 70% ATS (61-26-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 64% ATS (38-21-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 60% ATS (55-36-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 65% ATS (11-6-2) since Feb. 16 and 57% ATS (51-38-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 61% ATS (47-30) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 57% ATS (51-38-2) for the season.

Northwestern has had major problems on the offensive end with a mere 59.5 PPG (349th in nation) on just 39.2% FG. But although the Wildcats amass just 4.4 SPG (338th in Div. I), they surrender only 63.3 PPG to opponents (33rd in nation) on 41.3% FG and 31.4% threes. Despite the team's offensive woes, swingman Drew Crawford (15.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.1 APG) is a very talented player that can score in bunches. While he struggles to shoot the ball from deep (32% threes), he does a great job of finishing at the rim and attacking the paint. Guards JerShon Cobb (12.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.3 APG) and Tre Demps (10.9 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.0 APG) are both capable of to put up good scoring nights, but have not shown the consistency throughout the season to help Crawford out. The Wildcats are shooting a horrendous 29.9% from the three-point line this season, and will have to have a big game from this trio if they are going to pull off the major upset against an explosive Hawkeyes offense.

The Hawkeyes have struggled as of late, but have shown throughout the season that they are a dangerous team. Iowa currently ranks sixth in the country in scoring (82.6 PPG) on 46.9% FG (50th in Div. I), while ranking seventh in the nation in rebounding (40.8 RPG) and 11th in assists (16.3 PPG). This club is also opportunistic on the other end of the court, racking up 7.3 SPG (56th in nation) and 5.1 BPG (38th in Div. I). The leader of the team is senior PG Roy Devyn Marble (17.0 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.4 RPG). He can dominate a game in many different ways, and can be nearly impossible to stop off the bounce. At 6-foot-6, he is too big for opposing point guards to handle him physically. However, if he is guarded by forward, he can use his quickness to can get by his defender. When Marble is on his game, Iowa becomes a very dangerous team, and he has averaged 14.5 PPG, 4.0 APG and 3.5 RPG in the two wins over Northwestern this season. Marble is not the only weapon on this team, as PF Aaron White (13.3 PPG, 59% FG, 6.8 RPG) is a multi-talented big man that creates the same type of matchup problems that Marble does. He does a great job of pulling the opposing center away from the basket, but will dominate any smaller guy in the post. With these two leading the way, it allows PG Mike Gesell (8.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.3 SPG), SF Melsahn Basabe (7.7 PPG, 58% FG, 5.7 RPG) and PF Jarrod Uthoff (7.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG) to have the freedom to go out and make plays, and generally have favorable matchups.


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