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Wright State hosts Milwaukee in Horizon title game Tuesday
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Published: 3/11/2014  at  4:25:00 AM
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MILWAUKEE PANTHERS (20-13)

at WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS (20-13)

Horizon League Tournament - Championship Game
Ervin J. Nutter Center - Dayton, OH
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wright State -6, Total: 128

An NCAA Tournament berth will be on the line Tuesday night when Wright State and Milwaukee square off to determine the Horizon League championship.

These two teams split in the regular season, with both teams prevailing on their home court. The Raiders, the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament, won a 73-57 blowout in the first matchup on Jan. 21. But the Panthers, the No. 5 seed in the Horizon League, bounced back just nine days later to earn a hard-fought 68-64 victory for the season split. Milwaukee (19-11-1 ATS overall) is coming off an upset over top-seeded Green Bay on Saturday, winning 73-66 in overtime for its fourth straight victory (SU and ATS). That improved the Panthers to 11-8 ATS in conference play and a robust 13-5-1 ATS (72%) in non-home games (3-1-1 ATS on neutral courts). Senior SG Jordan Aaron was the star of the night, finishing the game with 28 points, while sending the game to overtime. Wright State (13-14 ATS overall) has been on even more of a tear as of late, winning its past six games (5-1 ATS) since a home loss to Cleveland State on Feb. 8. The club was able to exact some revenge on the Vikings on Saturday, defeating them, 68-63 behind senior SF Cole Darling's 21 points (5-for-10 FG, 10-for-10 FT). That win improved the Raiders to 12-6 ATS in conference play and they now get to host the finals where they are 13-2 SU, but just 5-6 ATS this season. Although Milwaukee is 53-30 ATS (64%) on the road versus good shooting teams (at least 45% FG) since 1997, Wright State is a perfect 9-0 ATS at home versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls per game than their opponents after 15+ games in this same timeframe.

Which team will capture the 2014 Horizon League Championship? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59% ATS (256-175-16) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (224-141-10) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 19-1-2 (95% ATS) since Feb. 6, 28-4-3 (88% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 75% ATS (53-18-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 71% ATS (60-25-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 66% ATS (37-19-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (54-34-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 64% ATS (9-5-2) since Feb. 16 and 57% ATS (49-37-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 60% ATS (45-30) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 56% ATS (49-38-2) for the season.

Milwaukee does not have an explosive offense with 71.0 PPG (191st in nation) on 43.4% FG (222nd in Div. I), but has done a solid job passing the ball, averaging 13.7 APG (102nd in nation). Rebounding has been a big problem though, as the Panthers are averaging a mere 33.6 RPG (240th in Div. I). This is also a subpar defense that allows 70.7 PPG (200th in nation) with a paltry 2.5 BPG (298th in Div. I). The Panthers are led by SG Jordan Aaron (14.9 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.5 APG), who is coming off the big game against Green Bay to give him 21.3 PPG in the three wins during this tournament. At 5-foot-10, Aaron can struggle sometimes to get shots up against taller defenders, making just 39% FG and 35% threes this season. However, he is fearless when attacking the paint, and does a great job of capitalizing when he gets to the free throw line (81% FT). Milwaukee has balanced scoring, as a trio of forwards -- Kyle Kelm (12.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG), Matt Tiby (12.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.0 APG) and Austin Arians (10.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG) -- can all lead the team in scoring on any given night. All three players scored at least a dozen points in the upset over Green Bay, with Tiby posting a double-double of 15 points and 10 rebounds. Junior PG Steve McWhorter (8.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG) fills up the stat sheet in his 34.0 MPG, and has averaged 7.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG and 4.0 APG during his team's three tournament games.

Wright State doesn't score much either at 67.5 PPG (267th in nation), but it shoots pretty well from the from all areas of the court with 45.6% FG (109th in Div. I), 36.0% threes and 73.8% free throws. But this is a superior defense to Milwaukee, as the Raiders allow just 62.1 PPG (21st in nation) on 42.7% FG and 32.5% threes, racking up 7.3 SPG (56th in Div. I). But like the Panthers, the Raiders have also struggled on the glass this season, ranking 344th in rebounding (29.2 RPG). In the two games this season, both teams won the battle of the boards by two in the game that they won. Six-foot-10 senior PF AJ Pacher (10.8 PPG on 60% FG, 5.0 RPG) is the leading scorer on the team at the power forward position, and posted a strong 11 points (5-of-9 FG) and eight rebounds in Saturday's win. Wright State goes extremely deep into its bench, with no player averaging more than the 26.5 MPG played by PG Matt Vest (7.0 PPG on 54% FG, 43% threes). Compare that to the Panthers, and all five of the Milwaukee starters for average more time than Vest. He averages less than one turnover per game, and has scored 9.8 PPG on 51% FG over his past five games. Senior SG Miles Dixon (8.9 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.9 APG) and senior SF Cole Darling (8.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG) both have shown the ability to lead the team in scoring on any given night. Dixon has 18.5 PPG on 60% FG (4-of-6 threes) with 5.0 RPG, 3.5 APG and 2.5 SPG so far in the Horizon Tournament, while Darling bounced back from a foul-plagued five points in the quarterfinal win over Oakland to pour in 21 points with three assists and three blocks in the semifinal win. Both of these teams are looking to slow the pace of this game and execute in the half-court offense.


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