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Oklahoma State aims for 4th straight win Monday vs. KSU
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Published: 3/3/2014  at  5:49:00 AM
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KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (20-9)

at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (19-10)

Gallagher-Iba Arena - Stillwater, OK
Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma State -8.5, Total: 136

Oklahoma State is coming off a huge victory over Kansas, and looks to carry that momentum into Monday's game when it hosts a surging Kansas State team.

These two teams played in the Big 12 opener earlier in the season on Jan. 4, with the home underdog Wildcats prevailing 74-71. The contest was a very physical matchup in Manhattan, as the two teams combined for 71 free-throw attempts. Both teams struggled to shoot the ball, as the Cowboys shot 40% FG (3-of-14 threes), while their opponent connected on just 37% FG (5-of-21 threes). Kansas State has won three of its past four games (2-2 ATS) and is healthy 16-10-1 ATS overall (62%) this season, including a strong 10-6 mark (SU and ATS) in Big 12 play. The club is also 6-5 ATS as an underdog, but just 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) in true road games. While the Wildcats' NCAA Tournament resume looks strong enough, a win on the road against a team that is rounding back to elite form would go a long way. Oklahoma State got its signature win this season on Saturday night, overcoming a double-digit deficit in the final 10 minutes to defeat Kansas 72-65 for the team's third straight win (SU and ATS) on the heels of a seven-game losing skid (SU and ATS). The Cowboys are still a subpar 11-14 ATS overall and 6-10 ATS in conference action, but they love playing at home where they are 12-3 SU (7-4 ATS) this season, beating these visitors by an average of 21.2 PPG. Although K-State is an impressive 11-2 ATS versus good shooting defenses (42% or less FG allowed), Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS after 2+ straight Unders over the past two seasons.

Which team will pick up the huge Big 12 win on Monday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59% ATS (240-169-13) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (208-135-7) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 86% ATS (24-4-2) since Jan. 17, is at 73% ATS (49-18-2) since Nov. 26 and a robust 69% ATS (56-25-3) in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (34-18) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (51-33-1) this season, while StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (7-3-1) since Feb. 16 and 57% ATS (47-35-3) for the season. StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (41-29) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 55% ATS (45-37-2) for the season.

Bruce Weber has installed the motion offense for the Wildcats, and the team does a great job of sharing the basketball with each other (15.6 APG, 25th in nation). If K-State is able to feed the ball down low, it should be able to improve on its pedestrian season numbers in scoring (69.3 PPG, 230th in Div. I) and shooting percentage (43.6% FG, 220th in nation). While K-State has some talented players on the offensive end, it is the defense that has led this club to 20 wins. The Wildcats currently rank 41st in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 64.1 PPG. They are even better in defending the three-point shot, limiting opponents to 28.3% threes (5th in Div. I). Kansas State does a great job of challenging all over the court, and uses its size and versatility to switch on picks around the perimeter. In the Jan. 4 meeting with OSU, the Wildcats were led by freshman SG Marcus Foster (15.1 PPG, 39% threes, 3.4 RPG), who finished the game with 17 points and eight rebounds. Despite being a freshman, Foster has emerged as the go-to player on the K-State team, as he's averaging 19.6 PPG and 3.6 APG in eight games since the start of February. This is not just a one-man show, as there are three upperclassmen that are able to put up strong numbers for the Wildcats. Junior PF Thomas Gipson (11.7 PPG, 56% FG, 6.3 RPG), senior SG Shane Southwell (9.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.9 APG) and senior SF Will Spradling (8.1 PPG, 36% threes, 3.2 RPG, 2.8 APG) have all had games this season where they have carried the team in scoring. Gipson is the Wildcats' best low-post scorer, and can play much longer minutes this season after losing 30 pounds in the off-season. Southwell and Spradling are two veteran players that have appeared in a lot of big games for K-State, and will play a big role Monday in a tough road environment in Stillwater against an Oklahoma State team that has its swagger back.

The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the country with 80.8 PPG (17th in Div. I). PG Marcus Smart (17.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.7 APG) has had a very difficult season for the Cowboys both on-and-off the court, but he has played phenomenal basketball since returning from his suspension with 18.0 PPG, 7.3 APG, 5.7 RPG and 5.3 SPG. In the second half against the Jayhawks on Saturday, Smart scored 20 of his 21 points, and willed his team to the victory. With Smart teaming up with senior SG Markel Brown (16.9 PPG, 38% threes, 5.4 RPG, 2.9 APG), the Cowboys have one of the most potent and athletic guard duos in the country. Brown is shooting a career-best 47% FG and 38% threes this season, and has topped 20 points in three of his past five contests. He also scored 16 points with nine rebounds in the Jan. 4 loss in Manhattan. SF Le'Bryan Nash (14.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is one of the most talented players in the country, and is a very difficult matchup for the opposing team. However, Nash has to guard the opposing team’s power forward a lot of the time, and he gets into foul trouble, committing four fouls in each of the past four games. With K-State lacking size down low, Nash should be able to dominate like he did on Jan. 4 when he dropped in a game-high 20 points (7-of-14 FG) with six rebounds. While these three players are the stars on the team, SG Phil Forte (13.3 PPG, 45% threes) is the player that benefits the most from them. When Smart starts driving the ball, defenses have to respect him and contest him at the rim. This has opened up many open three-point shots for Forte, where he is as effective of a shooter as there is in the country. He scored 14 points (4-of-8 FG) off the bench in the earlier meeting with KSU. For Oklahoma State, it has put itself back on the right side of the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. If the Cowboys can continue playing the way they have since Smart's return to the court, they will be a team that nobody wants to see in March.


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