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Ravens and Bengals meet for crucial Week 17 matchup
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2013  at  4:38:00 AM
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BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-7)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -6, Total: 44.5

The Ravens try to keep their playoff hopes alive Sunday with a visit to a Bengals team with a shot at securing a first-round bye in the postseason.

Baltimore was blown out 41-7 at home to the underdog Patriots last week, but could still play its way into the postseason with a win and some help, or even back into the playoffs with a loss plus the Steelers, Chargers and Dolphins all losing. The Bengals need a win plus a New England loss to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC. These teams met in Week 10 with the Ravens blowing a 17-0 halftime lead, but winning 20-17 with a field goal in overtime. This makes Baltimore 5-1 SU (3-2-1 ATS) in the past six meetings, and QB Joe Flacco 7-4 in his career versus Cincinnati. But not only are the Bengals a perfect 7-0 (SU and ATS) at home this season, but they are 18-6 ATS (75%) after leading in their previous game by 14+ points at the half under head coach Marvin Lewis. The Ravens are only 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) on the road in 2013, but are 15-6 ATS (71%) when facing a team with a winning record in the past three seasons. Several players are listed as questionable for both teams, with the most notable players being DE Arthur Jones (concussion), RB Bernard Pierce (foot) and LB Albert McClellan (neck) for Baltimore, with Cincinnati's biggest injury concerns being LB James Harrison (concussion), LB Vontaze Burfict (head), OT Andre Smith (ankle) and TE Tyler Eifert (stinger).

Can the Ravens hand the Bengals their first home loss of the season on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 season and playoffs. The experts continue to flourish, combining for a 57% ATS record (70-53-7) over the past eight weeks, including 75% ATS (12-4) in Week 16. StatFox Brian has a 66% ATS (27-14-3) mark in Best Bets since Week 7, and is 57.4% ATS (35-26-5) this season. StatFox Scott is 60% ATS (28-19-1) in Best Bets since Week 4, and is also a robust 62% (18-11) in NFL Totals since Week 9. StatFox Gary has six perfect weeks in Best Bets since Week 4, and is 65% ATS (11-6-2) in the past seven weeks of NFL Best Bets.

Baltimore has been one of the worst offensive clubs in the NFL all season, ranking 29th in total offense (313 YPG) and 26th in scoring offense (20.2 PPG). The ground game is averaging a league-worst 3.1 YPC, and its 6.0 net yards per pass attempt ranks 26th in the NFL. RB Ray Rice (645 rush yards, 4 TD) is having his worst year as a pro with a woeful 3.1 yards per carry, which is considerably lower than the 4.5 YPC average he had in his first five seasons in the league. In the Week 10 win over Cincy, Rice managed just 30 yards on 18 carries (1.7 YPC). QB Joe Flacco is also having his worst year as a pro with a career-low 75.2 passer rating with more interceptions (19) than touchdowns (18) and a career-low 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Not only was he 20-of-36 for 140 yards (3.9 YPA), 2 TD and 2 INT in the Week 10 win over the Bengals, but he has also been horrendous in his past four trips to Paul Brown Stadium, completing 55% of his passes for 513 yards (5.2 YPA), 2 TD and 6 INT in the home of his AFC North foe. He'll continue to lean most heavily on top WR Torrey Smith (1,101 rec. yards, 4 TD), who was the only Ravens player to top 30 receiving yards in last month's win versus the Bengals with 56 yards and a 7-yard touchdown grab. Defensively, Baltimore has been fierce all season, allowing only 332 YPG (9th in NFL) and 21.2 PPG (T-9th in league) as a result of a great red zone defense (47% TD rate, 7th in NFL). The unit has really stuffed the run (3.8 YPC, 7th in league), while also doing an outstanding job getting off the field on third downs (32%, 2nd in NFL). Baltimore has just five takeaways in its past five road games combined, but has forced nine turnovers in the past five meetings with the Bengals.

Cincinnati prefers to throw the football with 257 passing YPG (10th in league) and 110 rushing YPG (21st in NFL), but has been able to mix up its play-calling in the red zone which has led to a whopping 74% TD rate (2nd in league) and 26.4 PPG (7th in NFL). QB Andy Dalton (4,015 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 31 TD, 16 INT) is having his best season as a pro, and although he struggled against the Ravens (24-of-51, 274 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT), he has been on fire recently. In the past three games, Dalton has thrown for 871 yards (290 YPG), 7.4 YPA, 9 TD and 0 INT, lighting up the Vikings for 366 yards and four scores last week. Superstar WR A.J. Green (1,365 rec. yards, 10 TD) remains his top target, but five others have gained at least 440 yards through the air. RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis (690 rush yards, 3.3 YPC, 7 TD) and rookie Giovani Bernard (673 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 5 TD) haven't been spectacular, but have kept defenses honest. Speaking of defense, Cincinnati's stop unit is allowing a mere 4.8 yards per play, good for second-best in the NFL. The Bengals rank fifth in the NFL in total defense (311 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (19.2 PPG allowed), thanks largely to a tremendous third-down defense of 33% (4th in NFL). They held the Ravens to 189 total yards on 2.8 YPC and 2.9 YPA in Week 10, and are giving up only 16.7 PPG and 299 total YPG at home this year. Cincinnati is also making a ton of big plays over the past six games with 15 takeaways, including at least three forced turnovers in four of these six contests.


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