StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

49ers and Cardinals collide Sunday in desert
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2013  at  4:53:00 AM
  Print This Article    

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-4)
at ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Even, Total: 42.5

After tallying their fifth straight win on Monday night versus the Falcons, the 49ers try to improve their playoff positioning against a red-hot Cardinals team still hoping to reach the postseason.

San Francisco needs a win plus a Seattle loss to win the NFC West, and those two results plus a Carolina loss would give the Niners the No. 1 seed. Arizona is coming off an impressive win in Seattle to improve to 7-1 SU (6-1-1 ATS) in its past eight games, but can make the playoffs only with a win plus a Saints’ home loss to the Bucs. The Niners beat the Cardinals 32-20 in Week 6 and are a dominant 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) in this series since 2009. San Francisco is also 13-5 ATS (72%) versus good passing teams (235+ YPG) in the past three seasons, but Arizona is 40-17 ATS (70%) versus top-notch competition (teams with 6+ PPG margin) since 1992. Both teams are in good shape on the injury front, with the Niners slightly short-handed on offense without backup TE Vance McDonald (ankle) and WR Mario Manningham (knee), and the Cardinals possibly missing three defenders all listed as questionable: LB John Abraham (groin), DE Matt Shaughnessy (groin) and S Rashad Johnson (ankle).

Which NFC West team will secure a key win in Week 17? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 season and playoffs. The experts continue to flourish, combining for a 57% ATS record (70-53-7) over the past eight weeks, including 75% ATS (12-4) in Week 16. StatFox Brian has a 66% ATS (27-14-3) mark in Best Bets since Week 7, and is 57.4% ATS (35-26-5) this season. StatFox Scott is 60% ATS (28-19-1) in Best Bets since Week 4, and is also a robust 62% (18-11) in NFL Totals since Week 9. StatFox Gary has six perfect weeks in Best Bets since Week 4, and is 65% ATS (11-6-2) in the past seven weeks of NFL Best Bets.

The 49ers have played very well on the road this season, going 5-2 SU (6-1 ATS) where they have outscored their hosts by an average of 27.3 PPG to 15.7 PPG, and outgained them 314 YPG to 275 YPG. San Francisco loves to run the football (141 YPG, 3rd in NFL), which has been a key to its great red-zone success (58% TD rate, 5th in NFL) and has led the club to a strong 25.5 PPG overall (10th in league). RB Frank Gore (1,114 rush yards, 4.2 YPC, 9 TD) has rushed for 293 yards (4.9 YPC) over the past three games, and also piled up 101 yards on 25 carries in the 32-20 win versus the Cardinals on Oct. 13. The passing game has the second-fewest yards in the NFL (179 YPG), but it has still been efficient with 7.0 net yards per pass attempt (9th in the league). QB Colin Kaepernick has completed only 58.1% of his passes, but has thrown for 2,887 yards (7.6 YPA), 19 TD and 8 INT this season. He connected on two touchdown passes to TE Vernon Davis (805 rec. yards, 12 TD) in the Week 6 win over Arizona when Davis finished with eight catches for 180 yards. With Arizona struggling to cover tight ends all season, Davis should have a big day once again. Kaepernick also has two other quality pass catchers in WRs Anquan Boldin (1,030 rec. yards, 6 TD) and Michael Crabtree (255 rec. yards, 15.9 yards per catch, 1 TD in four games). Defensively, the Niners have stopped both the run (97 YPG, 5th in NFL) and pass (209 YPG, 4th in league) with consistency this season, which is why they are so great on third downs (35%, 6th in NFL). They are allowing only 16.8 PPG this year (3rd in league), and have forced at least one turnover in 12 straight games, compiling 25 takeaways during this stretch. But after struggling with miscues for most of the season, Arizona has taken much better care of the football lately.

The Cardinals began the season with 21 turnovers in their first nine games, but have only eight giveaways in their past six contests. QB Carson Palmer (3,867 pass yards, 7.4 YPA, 22 TD, 21 INT) had thrown only two picks over a five-game stretch heading into last week, but he tossed four interceptions in the win against the Seahawks. In the Oct. 13 loss in San Francisco, Palmer threw a pair of picks, but also completed 25-of-41 passes for 298 yards and two touchdowns, one to each of his top two targets, WRs Larry Fitzgerald (841 rec. yards, 10 TD) and Michael Floyd (950 rec. yards, 5 TD). This duo is a big reason why the team has 240 passing YPG (13th in NFL), and posted a respectable 23.9 PPG (T-16th in league) without a strong running game. Arizona has rushed for a paltry 3.6 yards per carry (28th in NFL) and 97.1 YPG (23rd in league) this season, mostly due to leading ball carrier RB Rashard Mendenhall whose 640 rushing yards have come on a mere 3.1 YPC. Rookie RB Andre Ellington has been much more effective with 5.7 YPC on his 109 attempts, and the 49ers had a hard time slowing him down in Week 6 when Ellington rushed for 56 yards on 8.0 YPC and gained 36 more yards on five receptions. Arizona's defense does not have any glaring weaknesses. The unit leads the NFL in rushing defense (84 YPG) and ranks second in yards per carry allowed (3.7). While the pass defense has allowed 229 YPG through the air, it ranks third in the league with 5.8 net yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals allow just 20.1 PPG overall (7th in NFL) and 314 total YPG (6th in league), and these numbers improve to 17.0 PPG on just 292 total YPG at home. The defense has forced multiple turnovers in nine of their past 12 games, tallying 26 takeaways during this span.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: