PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (0-0)
at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-0)
Kickoff: Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Washington -3, Total: 51.5
Two exciting dual-threat quarterbacks play under the lights on Monday when Eagles QB Michael Vick tries to outscore Redskins QB Robert Griffin III.
Griffin put up insane numbers during his teamís sweep of Philly last year, completing 30-of-39 passes for 398 yards and 6 TD, plus 88 more running yards. He wonít scramble as much with his knee brace this season, but Washington's ground game is in very capable hands (and feet). Redskins RB Alfred Morris also hurt the Eagles last season with 191 total yards in the two wins. Phillyís defense got a major overhaul in personnel, and new head coach Chip Kelly has delivered his up-tempo offense from Oregon that centers around Vick and RB LeSean McCoy. He'll look to get his new team back to respectability after a 4-12 season, and could notch that first win Monday considering Washington is 11-24 ATS (31%) in September home games since 1992. Also, favorites that allowed 5.4+ yards per play in their previous season like the Redskins are just 20-47 ATS (30%) versus division opponents over the past decade. However, not all is grim for Washington, considering the Eagles were 0-7 ATS when the line was between +3 and -3 last season.
Can the Eagles pull off the mild upset in Chip Kelly's NFL head coaching debut? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 season and playoffs. During the 2012 campaign, the experts combined for a 52% ATS success rate in NFL Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Brian's 60% ATS mark (36-24-2 ATS) and StatFox Dave's 53% ATS accuracy (44-41-4). StatFox Scott and StatFox Gary dominated NFL Totals, with Scott going 57% (38-29-1) and Gary cranking out a 56% clip (28-22-1) during the season, capped off by a perfect 4-0 run in the postseason.
The Eagles, who scored just 17.5 PPG last year (fourth-fewest in NFL) will surely play up-tempo with new head coach Chip Kelly, but new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is from the Andy Reid coaching tree and should bring a more traditional touch to this offense. RB LeSean McCoy will take the majority of the carries and QB Michael Vick will get to run a few keepers. With No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin out for the year with a torn ACL, WR DeSean Jackson will likely get more intermediate targets. This should help the team's poor 6.1 passing YPA in 2013 that ranked 26th in the league. The Eagles hope new defensive coordinator Billy Davis can improve the teamís pathetic 13 takeaways in 2012 (tied for last in NFL). This led to the club allowing 27.8 PPG, which tied them for the league's fourth-worst scoring defense. Davisí 3-4 based scheme will operate in multiple looks with several blitz packages. It will feature many new faces, such as mountainous NT Isaac Sopoaga, pass-rushing OLB Connor Barwin and a brand new secondary of CB Bradley Fletcher, CB Cary Williams, FS Kenny Phillips and SS Pat Chung. This back four hopes to pick off much more than the eight passes that last year's defense managed. The only major injury concern for the defense is that Williams is questionable with a hamstring injury.
RB Alfred Morris is a three-down workhorse, but everything the Redskins do is based on QB Robert Griffin III. Itís head coach Mike Shanahanís classic zone blocking up front in the running game, but with the added threat of Griffin keeping it. Washington piled up a league-best 169 rushing YPG last year, and also led the NFL with 6.2 yards per play. The passing game uses a lot of play-action and rollouts with WR Pierre Garcon the closest thing to a No. 1 receiver, getting a lot of catch-and-run opportunities. TE Fred Davis is the No. 2 option for Griffin. Although the team finished 20th in passing offense (214 YPG), it still posted 27.3 PPG, good for fourth-best in the NFL. Because the Redskins stuffed the run so effectively (96 YPG allowed, 5th in NFL), opponents chose to throw on them more than any NFL team at nearly 40 attempts per game. Rookie CB David Amerson and former Bucs CB E.J. Biggers should help the overworked secondary. DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan (8 sacks) was the only player to record at least five sacks, but ageless ILB London Fletcher, 38, is still a highly productive linebacker and team leader on defense. The Redskins will be missing some key players on Monday, including DE Jarvis Jenkins (suspension), DE Adam Carriker (quad), LB Rob Jackson (suspension), CB DeAngelo Hall (ankle) and S Philip Thomas (foot).