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FOOTBALL SYSTEMS RELEASE
In accordance with the standards set forth in the 2004 football season, StatFox has again begun to analyze the college and pro football season results, both from a general perspective and from a handicapping standpoint, looking at everything from key statistics to proprietary FoxSheets’ angles. The early returns have come in and we are first publishing this list of 109 top systems to look for. These results include all games up through Monday’s most recent Tennessee/LSU & Kansas City/Denver games.
For the most part, many of the same principles found during the 2004 campaign are again finding similar results in 2005. In all, StatFox has tracked 408 different potential systems. The most telling numbers come in comparing the use of simple stat systems to those incorporating some of the FoxSheets’ most sophisticated handicapping methods. 
Systems Lists
There are two system lists available for downloading. First, this year’s list, called 2005FBProfitSystems.xls, lists the best and worst (fade) systems for this year’s early action in both college and pro football. The second chart is last year’s final systems edition, entitled FB75ProfitSystems.xls. This will help with those hoping to find more consistent performing indicators. Check out the rest of the article for more information. |
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StatFox Scuffle 9/29/05: College Football Month One Wrap-up & Look-ahead
StatFox says:
Hello everybody, with a month of college football action in the books, we figured we'd spend this edition of the StatFox Scuffle looking back at the early action and the prospecting into the future. We'll look at suprise teams, trends, and potential situations to look out for heading into the rest of the season. After last week's heated Scuffle between Doug and Steve, perhaps they will find themselves more on the same page today. If not...oh well....that's the nature of the scuffle. So without further ado, I bring in StatFox Doug and StatFox Steve. Good day gentlemen, and welcome to this week's StatFox Scuffle |
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StatFox NFL Tournament of Champions
The football gods had evidently seen enough joy in people’s faces and rendered many back to the drawing board. Only 24 of the 114 who entered in week 3 saw their way clear to finish above .500 for the week.  This past weekend is truly the essence of the NFL for wagering purposes, you are left hanging by a thread, either negatively or positively as the game’s enter the final 60 seconds. This week’s winner DREAMJOB took five underdogs in seven selections and it worked as pure genius - he capped it off by using Denver as his top play to win with 27 points. For his superlative efforts DREAMJOB wins the Cooper Cooler and a seat at the prestigious Tournament of Champions table. Nice job with a truly dreamy performance.
Only 33 people hit their top rated selection, while 48 folks nailed their least favorite play so get back up on the horse that threw ya, because for Week 4 our StatFox prize is Bushnell Compact Instant Replay 8 x 30 Digital Binoculars with Built-In Digital Camera. These binoculars combine high-power magnification with high-resolution still image and video capture in one compact device. Not only can you see every detail, you can share the view with others.
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Cowboys invade Raider Nation
Well, how 'bout them Cowboys? Coach Bill Parcells decided that because Dallas was playing back-to-back games in the Bay Area, why not just spend the week. You know, do a little sightseeing, go the Golden Gate Bridge, cross over and go to Sausalito, check out the artwork and head up north to wine country and sample the local vineyards. Yeah, right, spending a week on the road with Parcells during the season would be equivalent to being with your mother-in-law and her side of the family on your vacation for a week.
Parcells is glad to be 2-1, however the 23 PPG allowed are not going to make him happy, and you know the 13 yards per completion adds a colorful contrast of a crimson colored face against gray hair. The Cowboys run defense is adjusting to the 4-3 scheme and is 20th against the rush, though it does not look like Oakland can exploit them since they are 31st in the NFL at a whopping 61 YPG rushing. QB Drew Bledsoe has exceeded expectations with his 6 TD passes and a 103.7 quarterback rating. The pass protection has been peerless considering the mobility Bledsoe does not possess. Julius Jones and the running game have not hit on all cylinders yet with a 3.5 YPC average. You can be assured that Coach Parcells wants more giddy-up in the Cowboys ground game.
For long time followers of the Raiders wherever they played, the slogans "Commitment to Excellence" and "Silver & Black, Pride and Poise" meant something throughout the 70's and 80's. Those beliefs have been replaced by "Holding on number _ _" (fill in the blank) or "Personal foul on _ _". The Raiders once again are committing double digit penalties and lack the talent to overcome such in digressions. Where Oakland lives in the past is the belief they can overcome all these mistakes. The days of the seven step drops and watching patterns develop 15-25 yards down the field are gone. Back in those days you could take those penalties and overcome them if you had the talent. That is not where Oakland franchise currently resides. Lamont Jordan needs holes to run threw to justify signing him, no holes means no gain, plain and simple. The Raiders came into the season with issues in the defensive backfield; giving up 300 YPG passing, those beliefs were and are still true.
BetonUSA.com has Oakland as a 3-point choice with the total at 46.5.
All the negative talk Al Davis has done over the years against the league continues to haunt them. The Raiders had to play the both Super Bowl participants in the first three weeks of the season. Oakland has been deplorable against the number with a 10-23 ATS mark in all games over the last 3 seasons. The worst month in the miserable stretch is this month, in which the Raiders are 0-11 (not a misprint) ATS. Bill Parcells is 49-30 ATS as an underdog coach since 1992; with never nervous Norv's team 1-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. If Oakland fails to win this contest and heads into the bye week 0-4, you would have to wonder about the state of mind of the team coming back afterwards. Oakland has competed in every game and needs to eliminate foolish mistakes to put a 'W' on the left side of the ledger. Dallas will want a win in this spot with a big Eagles battle up next at home. Two classic uniforms, two classic teams with a long history of success, both searching for a return to glory.
Get all of the key game handicapping information by visiting our FREE NFL FoxSheet of the Week! |
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Last man standing in West Lafayette
Purdue is mad, really mad. The Boilermakers were embarrassed by their performance at Minnesota, as the Gophers ran for 310 yards against the vaunted Purdue defense. Coach Tiller's team went in their conference opener the number one ranked defense against the run and left the Twin Cities seeing double as they fell to 41st. For this Indiana university, nothing would remove the sting of that loss like a third straight triumph over in-state rival Notre Dame. Interestingly enough, this is only the 10th time in this Hoosier state match-up that both teams come into the game ranked, dating back over three quarters of a century.
This marks the end of difficult road for Notre Dame. The Irish have opened with four of five games on the road to start the Charley Weis era. After this contest, Notre Dame does not play on the road again until Thanksgiving weekend. Charley the curmudgeon has whipped the Irish into shape far faster than anyone could have possibly imagined. The offense was expected to be strong with every starter back, however it has been the execution that has surprised everyone. Those who followed New England on a regular basis during their Super Bowl run, are amused in watching college kids perpetrate what they have been watching the last half decade in Boston. One of the secrets in what Weis has accomplished is attempting to limit the exposure of the defense. The Irish are controlling the clock with a time of possession of 34:07 per game. The Irish run defense has been representative in allowing 105 YPG and 3.6 YPC. The pass defense is another matter ranking 105th in giving a few slivers under 300 yards. To date the defense has been more opportunistic then good in forcing 9 turnovers.
Purdue, like Notre Dame, had all 11 starters back, except they were on the defensive side of the ball. The difference has been while Notre Dame offense has been clicking, the Purdue pass defense has been throttled. DC Brock Spack has probably not getting much sleep since the start of the season as opposing offenses have "spacked" his defense for 307 YPG threw the air. Purdue defenders seem to have little confidence, more thinking why is this happening as opposed to making it happen. QB Brandon Kirsch has completed just 52.4 percent of his passes in 2005. He has missed receivers by large margins and last week had several dropped passes by a solid quartet of experienced pass catchers. Joe Tiller's team has run the ball with superior efficiency, averaging 201 YPG and 5.1 YPC.
Purdue has an outstanding against the spread record at home under Coach Tiller at 26-14 65%. That is why it is a bit surprising the Boilers are only 3-point favorites everywhere, including BetUs.com.
For Purdue this is all about restoring confidence after a bitter defeat. A loss could send them reeling in spite a of favorable Big 10(11) schedule. A win is the only remedy for the Boilermakers. For long time fans of both teams, the last time Purdue won three games in a row Bob Greise and Mike Phipps were behind center for the Boilers. Notre Dame is striving to win four true road games for the first time since 1993. The Irish are 1-5 ATS at West Lafayette the last six trips and 4-9 ATS the last 13 years in this heated rivalry.
This has all the makings of a superior game on ESPN on Saturday night and should deliver considerable entertainment value.
Get yourself fully prepared for this big game by visiting our FREE College Football FoxSheet of the Week! |
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