StatFox FREE Weekly Newsletter
 |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
Brought to you by BetUS.com -Great bonuses and service 11 years and running!
Click here for the daily FREE NBA FoxSheet
Similar to the FoxSheets systems presented for BASEBALL and FOOTBALL this year, StatFox has begun analyzing it's FoxSheets for NBA system development. The full analysis should be in place for next week's StatFox E-newsletter, but until then, here are some interesting and HIGHLY PROFITABLE tidbits surrounding the "Outplay Factor" in the NBA for the month of November.
If you recall from our football analysis, the "Outplay Factor" was described as a calculation using team scoring and defensive statistics as compared to their previous opponents' averages to determine how that team was "outplaying" or "being outplayed by" its foes. The results have proven very favorable so far this season in the NBA.
For the month of November, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 "Composite Outplay Factor" teams and their combined records as of Tuesday:
Top 5 (combined ATS record in November: 48-22 ATS, 68.6%):
SAN ANTONIO 9.0
PHOENIX 8.1
SEATTLE 6.2
CLEVELAND 5.2
DALLAS 4.0
Bottom 5 (combined ATS record in November: 22-40 ATS, 35.5%):
NEW ORLEANS -4.9
GOLDEN STATE -6.1
NEW JERSEY -9.1
CHICAGO -9.2
ATLANTA -10.3
On a game by game basis, here are some of the key performance results. The numbers for calculating these factors for each game can easily be found on the Advanced Team Stats tables on the FoxSheets.
1) Teams with an "Offensive Outplay Factor" edge are 111-85 ATS 56.6%. OOF is calculated by taking a team's Offensive PPG minus its' previous Opponents Average Points Allowed.
2) Teams with a "Defensive Outplay Factor" edge are 103-83 ATS 55.4%. DOF is calculated by taking a team's Defensive PPG minus its' previous Opponents Average Points Scored.
3) Teams with both an "Offensive Outplay Factor" edge and a "Defensive Outplay Factor" edge are 67-50 ATS 57.3%!
4) Underdogs with a "Composite Outplay Factor" edge are 36-24 ATS this season, good for 60%. COF is determined by subtracting the DOF from the OOF for a team.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
College Football
|
|
|
The College Football season is winding down, with just this "Championship Week" and the bowl games remaining on the schedule. As such, December is usually one of the biggest months of the year for StatFox and the FoxSheets. Sign on today for just a month of service and gain access to all the big time college action for the rest of the year. Plus, don't miss next week's StatFox E-newsletter, when we will be presenting our increasingly famous annual Bowl Game Prep Article.
In the meantime, enjoy the FREE analysis from one of this weekend's biggest games, essentially the ACC Championship, as Miami hosts Virginia Tech, with the winner moving on to represent the conference in the BCS.
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Virginia Tech at Miami
|
|
|
Brought to you by BetUS.com -Great bonuses and service 11 years and running!
Either 11th-ranked Virginia Tech or No. 9 Miami will win the Atlantic Coast Conference's automatic BCS bowl berth in its first year in the league when the former Big East Conference rivals meet Saturday at the Orange Bowl. That showdown is this week's FREE College Football FoxSheet. It is somewhat ironic that these two team will be vying for the ACC title in their first season in the conference, when just a year they were representing the Big East, a conference which is currently embroiled in a controversy in which it has not a single legitimate BCS team. That will certainly be far from the minds of these two schools though since clearly more pressing matters are at hand for Saturday. Miami has been installed as a 7 point favorite, as each team comes in with a pair of losses. The teams have spilt the last 12 games of the series, with Tech winning 8 of those against the spread.
The statistical and trend analyses seem to favor the Hokies in this game as they are given an edge star on the estimator. Plus, their ability to force turnovers and their status as an elite team are performance indicators against which Miami has struggled. On the other hand, the situational analysis sides favorably with the Hurricanes. Among the many StatFox Super Situations favoring Miami is this one:
Play On - Home favorites (MIAMI) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(45-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +28.5 units. Rating = 4*)
With contradicting analysis as strong as this, we'll see what weighs out when the teams meet on the field Saturday at 1:00 PM ET. In any right, one of these deserving schools will find itself about $14 million richer. The stakes are high, the information is strong. Make sure you get a jump on handicapping this game by visiting the FREE College Football FoxSheet, Plus, don't forget to download this week's UPDATED College & Pro Football FoxSheet systems and Qualified Plays.
|
|
|
|
|
NFL Power Ratings
|
|
|
Brought to you by BetOnUSA.com - When you bet, BetOnUSA!
The StatFox NFL Power Ratings continued to roll last weekend, hitting on 9 of 15 games, with one game indicating no edge either way. That 56.3% performance was right on pace with the season average, now at 56.0%. Here are the current StatFox NFL power ratings heading into this weekend. Keep in mind that StatFox adds 3 points for each home team.
| Rank |
Team |
PwrRtg |
| 1 |
INDIANAPOLIS |
34 |
| 2 |
NEW ENGLAND |
32 |
| 3 |
PHILADELPHIA |
31 |
| 4 |
PITTSBURGH |
27 |
|
GREEN BAY |
27 |
| 6 |
BUFFALO |
26 |
|
SAN DIEGO |
26 |
| 8 |
NY JETS |
25 |
| 9 |
BALTIMORE |
24 |
| 10 |
KANSAS CITY |
23 |
| 11 |
DENVER |
22 |
|
TAMPA BAY |
22 |
| 13 |
ATLANTA |
21 |
|
MINNESOTA |
21 |
| 15 |
CAROLINA |
20 |
|
CINCINNATI |
20 |
|
SEATTLE |
20 |
| 18 |
TENNESSEE |
19 |
| 19 |
JACKSONVILLE |
18 |
| 20 |
MIAMI |
17 |
|
ST LOUIS |
17 |
|
NY GIANTS |
17 |
| 23 |
WASHINGTON |
16 |
|
HOUSTON |
16 |
|
CLEVELAND |
16 |
| 26 |
NEW ORLEANS |
15 |
| 27 |
OAKLAND |
14 |
|
DALLAS |
14 |
|
ARIZONA |
14 |
| 30 |
CHICAGO |
13 |
|
DETROIT |
13 |
| 32 |
SAN FRANCISCO |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
Green Bay at Philadelphia |
|
|
Brought to you by TCBets.com - Sports, Horses, great wagering bonuses!
The rematch of last year's exciting divisional playoff game is the StatFox FREE NFL FoxSheet of the week, as Green Bay and Philadelphia square off at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday at 4:15 PM ET. Eleven months after that bitter defeat, the Packers are still haunted by a series of mishaps that eventually led to a 20-17 overtime setback. A 4th & 26 conversion, a late first half goal line stand, and a turnover in overtime are among the key plays that eventually determined the outcome of that contest. Green Bay has a chance to gain a degree of revenge though this week as they ride into Philadelphia on a six game winning streak hoping to derail the 10-1 Eagles. Both teams are now considered front runners for the NFC title this season and this game should provide a great barometer for the strength of each the rest of the way. Philly has been installed as a 6 point favorite.
Philadelphia has yet to lose at home this year nor in a conference game. In fact, the Eagles are a perfect 8-0 ATS against NFC foes this in 2004. However, they have only played three teams so far that would be considered playoff caliber teams, and in those games they are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS. Green Bay finds itself in a similar position, having played the about the same degree of competition, so neither team would be considered fully battle tested at this point. For the record, the last three games between these NFC powers have been decided by a field goal, with the Eagles winning the most recent two, both last season.
This game figures to pit strength vs strength, and the impressive list of matchup trends illustrates that. Philadelphia has had a lot of problems stopping the run again in 2004:
In fact, PHILADELPHIA is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are currently allowing 4.5 yards per rush.
On the other hand, Green Bay has had its problems with upper level teams on the road:
GREEN BAY is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season since 1992.
Both teams have been excellent down the stretch in recent years under their coaches, Mike Sherman and Andy Reid, incidentally, former colleagues. It should be an excellent matchup. As always, this week's FREE NFL FoxSheet is loaded with great handicapping information for analyzing the spread, total, money line, halftime line, and teaser line. Make sure to visit the FREE NFL FoxSheet before finalizing your plays on this conference showdown. Again, the game kicks off on Sunday at 4:15 PM ET.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Special offers from our Sponsors!
In addition to sponsoring our great football handicapping contests in the FoxDen Forum, our sponsors also offer a safe and secure place to make your wagers! Visit them today by clicking on these links:
BetCRIS: Where the line originates, is our newest sponsor, and is also offering a great bonus package.
BetOnUSA: When you bet, BetOnUSA is the their tagline…20% bonuses are their gift to you!
BetUS: Our longest running sponsor, BetUS has been around for 11 years, offering excellent customer service and AWESOME bonuses! |
|
|
Visit our respected sponsors for a safe and secure place to make your wagers! |
|
    |
|
|
|
|
